US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Global Daily Monitor
- The estimated increase in real GDP since Q4 2019 has been revised up to 10.7%, from 9.4%.
- August PCE data will point to continued strength in consumers’ spending, but slower growth likely looms.
- We look for a 0.14% August core PCE print, slightly below the consensus.
Samuel TombsUS
- Survey measures of investment intentions point to a weak August durable goods report...
- ...But for now, solid investment in computers and transportation is offsetting broader weakness.
- Seasonally adjustment issues point to another low initial claims print; the labor market is still worsening.
Samuel TombsUS
- We see limited macro implications if Democrats keep the White House...
- ...But split control of Congress likely would mean a slight tightening in fiscal policy, given current plans.
- A Trump victory risks higher inflation and rates, and weaker growth, especially if GOP sweeps Congress.
Samuel TombsUS
- The GDP-GDI gap is big, but revisions usually result in GDI being pulled towards GDP, not vice-versa.
- Firms’ interest payments likely will be revised up, boosting the imputed interest income of households.
- The employment index of S&P’s PMI survey points to very weak growth in private payrolls this autumn.
Samuel TombsUS
- Claims fell to a 20-week low due to faulty seasonal adjustment and calm weather; the firing trend is flat.
- The mix of steady layoffs and a further fall in hiring will propel unemployment upwards at a faster pace.
- Existing home sales dropped back again in August, and a significant recovery is unlikely in the near term.
Samuel TombsUS
- The FOMC’s forecasts imply that slow, steady, easing will stabilize the labor market soon...
- ...But policy is not that powerful and works with long lags; the Committee will ease in 50bp steps again.
- Housing starts rebounded in August, but a further climb is unlikely in the near term.
Samuel TombsUS
- A 25bp easing today is slightly more likely than a 50bp, but markets will care more about the dotplot.
- The Committee likely will forecast 100bp of easing this year, but less than markets expect in 2025.
- August retail sales point to strong consumption growth in Q3; but the outlook is dimming.
Samuel TombsUS
- Homebase data point to rapid growth in private payrolls in September, but they are deeply flawed.
- Hospitality firms dominate the sample, and we have too little data to make good calendar adjustments.
- Data from Visa and Opentable signal that the control measure of retail sales rose further in August.
Samuel TombsUS
- PPI and CPI data collectively point to a 0.14% increase in the August core PCE deflator.
- Slowing wage growth, a margin squeeze and lower energy prices will return core inflation to 2% in Q2.
- Jobless claims have fallen since July, but hiring is dropping faster; expect even lower job growth in Q4.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The uptick in the core CPI in August largely was due to the reversal of erratic price falls in prior months.
- We expect smaller increases in primary rent, falling services inflation and flat goods prices through Q4.
- The CPI data tentatively imply a 0.22% core PCE, but will hone our forecast after today’s PPI data.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- We look for a 0.3% rise in the August core CPI, driven by rebounds in hospital charges and airline fares.
- Underlying core services inflation probably continued to decline, while goods prices likely rose weakly.
- The rebounding CPI components don’t feed into the core PCE, but the Fed still looks set to ease by 25bp.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Households plan to sustain 5% annualized nominal spending growth, despite income gains of just 3%...
- ...That requires people to slash the saving rate to a record low 1%, during a worsening labor market.
- NFIB’s headline index probably dipped in August on political news, but capex plans likely worsened too.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- August unemployment has often surprised to the upside, perhaps due to shifting seasonality…
- …But continuing claims and state-level data suggest unemployment overshot its trend in July.
- Growth in unit labor costs is now running well below 2%, pointing to weak underlying inflation.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Homebase data point to strong August payrolls, but most other indicators signal another weak print.
- Our 125K forecast for private payrolls will be unaffected by ADP’s estimate today, whatever it says.
- Q3 GDP looks set to rise at a modest 1½% rate, despite recent momentum in real consumption.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The details of the August ISM manufacturing survey are bleak, despite the uptick in the headline.
- Weakness in the manufacturing sector looks set to remain a small drag on payrolls and growth.
- The July JOLTS report will reinforce the message that the labor market is cooling.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The core PCE deflator undershot the Fed’s forecast yet again in July; expect more benign prints in H2.
- Recent strength in consumption lacks solid foundations; the saving rate will be higher a year from now.
- The ISM probably remained soft in August, pointing to weak growth in manufacturing employment
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The small recent rise in continuing claims suggests July’s unemployment rate was overestimated.
- We are pencilling in a 0.1pp dip in the rate to 4.2% in August, despite the worsening trend.
- The rapid 2.9% growth in consumers’ spending in Q2 looks unsustainable; expect a sharp slowdown.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- We look for little change in in initial jobless claims today, and a run of lower numbers this fall…
- …Leading indicators have improved and the seasonals will help; but lower hiring will slow job gains.
- The hit to growth from the rising trade deficit will be offset by boosts from inventories and investment.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- We look for a 0.13% rise in the July core PCE deflator, implying downside risk to the 0.2% consensus.
- Real consumption probably rose by 0.3% in July, setting up a strong base for growth in Q3…
- …But we expect a slowdown ahead, due to weak income growth and rising the saving rate.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Ignore the near-10% surge in headline durable goods orders in July; the details were weak…
- …Real core capital goods shipments fell by 0.5%, pointing to falling equipment investment in Q3.
- A hit to sentiment among Republicans probably weighed on overall consumer confidence in August.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
