PM Datanote: US New Home Sales, May

New home sales likely to remain subdued.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, June

Consistent with slowing consumption growth and a gently rising unemployment rate.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, May

New mortgage rates still far too high for transactions to recover

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, May

Still humming along nicely.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

24 June 2024 US Monitor Will lower rates be enough for stocks if margins adjust sharply downwards?

• Stocks will like Fed easing, but will be less enamored of a potentially steep drop in gross margins.
• Existing home sales fell a bit further in May and a sustained recovery looks a long way off.
• The pick-up in the employment index of S&P Global PMI survey in June is probably a red herring.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, May

Residential investment likely to plunge in Q2.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, May

A gradual recovery is taking hold, but manufacturing is too small to alter the bigger picture.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, May

Consumers are flagging.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US NAHB Index, June

High mortgage rates are continuing to crush demand.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Empire State Survey: Inflation pressures reassuringly absent, given the surge in shipping costs.

Inflation pressures reassuringly absent, given the surge in shipping costs.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, June Prelim

A further slowdown in consumption growth seems increasingly likely.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

17 June 2024 US Monitor The FOMC is too optimistic with its unemployment forecast

• The Fed likely will have to revise up its unemployment forecast in September; the trend is rising.
• Consumers’ confidence fell again in June, despite lower gas prices and a booming stock market.
• The Empire State survey will help to assess the size of the shipping cost shock coming manufacturers’ way.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US PPI, May 2024

May core PCE likely rose just 0.11%, well below the Fed’s expectations.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US PPI: May core PCE likely rose just 0.11%, well below the Fed's expectations.

May core PCE likely rose just 0.11%, well below the Fed’s expectations.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, June 8

A clear uptrend is now underway.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US CPI, May

Disinflation is back on track; expect two easings in today’s 2024 dot plot.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US NFIB Survey, May

A partial recovery, but still a downbeat picture.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

10 June 2024 US Monitor Core September easing remains a decent base case, despite May payrolls

• The initial estimate of a brisk 272K rise in May payrolls likely will be revised down, given many weak indicators.
• The case for firms to hoard staff is weakening as the unemployment rate grinds higher.
• The unwinding of a calendar quirk drove May’s jump in average hourly earnings; the trend still is slowing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, May

A solid headline number, but the labor market is a weak spot.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment Report, May

ADP is too unreliable to take seriously, though it’s consistent with our payroll forecast.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US