US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Global Weekly Monitor
- The Q1 data suggest upside risk to our 0.28% March core PCE forecast, but 0.3% rounded still looks likely.
- Q1 GDP growth was better beneath the hood; the headline was hit by a big foreign trade drag...
- ...But expect drags in Q2 from inventories and residential investment, as well as slowing consumption growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Durable orders were stronger than we expected in March, but they still fell in Q1 as a whole.
- GDP likely rose by 2.6% in Q1; this week's data have triggered only marginal changes in our forecast.
- Time lags and generous seasonals mean today's initial claims data likely will be little changed, again.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- S&P's employment index has inaccurately pointed to sharp slowdowns in growth in payrolls before...
- ...but its grim message should be taken seriously now, given that it is echoed by the NFIB survey.
- Easter effects point to a downside surprise in durable goods orders ex-transportation.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- S&P's PMI is too unreliable a guide to GDP to be useful, but its soft inflation signal should be taken seriously.
- Annual retail sales revisions could have significant implications for consumption growth in Q1.
- New home sales probably rose in March, capping a strong quarter for residential investment.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Last year’s strong consumption was due to rapid real income growth; the saving rate rose.
- Real income growth will be much slower this year, so if the saving rate keeps rising, spending will suffer.
- Consumption might slow gradually, but in the 2001 business cycle recession, growth lurched down.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- We think GDP rose at a 2.6% quarter-on-quarter pace in Q1, powered primarily by consumers’ spending.
- Data released before the GDP estimate next Thursday, however, could shift our forecast materially.
- Home sales likely still have further to fall in Q2, despite their big drop in March.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Ignore the fall in the LEI in March—Q1 GDP growth will be brisk—but it should become a better guide soon.
- Look out for an above-consensus rise in jobless claims today as Easter distortions unwind; the trend is rising.
- February’s surge in existing home sales looks like an anomaly; expect a plunge in March.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Chair Powell signals that the Fed requires much more data to start easing soon; June odds down again.
- The widening spread between part-time and full-time job growth is an alarming signal for payrolls.
- The early Easter hit March housing starts but, in any event, a sustained recovery is some way off.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Homebase data point to a mere 120K rise in private payrolls in April, but the range of possible prints is wide.
- Strong March retail sales and upward revisions mean Q1 consumption likely rose by more than 3%.
- The early Easter likely depressed housing starts in March, offsetting support from further mild weather.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Slowing wage gains, normalized supply chains, and a shrinking money supply will constrain inflation…
- …But anything can happen over periods as short as a few months, and the Fed is backward-looking.
- March core retail sales appear to have been soft, capping a sluggish first quarter.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US