- The January FOMC minutes reinforce Chair Powell’s message: They are going to wait for more data.
- Don’t be deceived by falling February mortgage applications; the seasonals are hopeless.
- An array of indicators points to rising jobless claims, but not just yet.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Homebase data point to a sharp slowdown in February payrolls; we expect 125K, with 75K private jobs.
- Spikes in the payroll numbers are common; what matters is whether they are sustained.
- The FOMC minutes will reaffirm the message that policymakers are happy to delay the first easing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
More disappointment, but no change in the trend or the fundamentals
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Severe weather likely hurt January retail sales; a partial rebound is a good bet for February.
- The soft start to the quarter means we now expect 2% growth in real Q1 spending; decent, but a slowdown.
- Core PPI inflation probably is still falling, but margins—trade services—are wild month-to-month.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Homebuilders are enjoying lower rates
US
Still in the doldrums, for now.
US
Positive, but not conclusive.
US
- Core retail sales likely rose again in January, getting Q1 consumption off to a decent start.
- Manufacturing output, by contrast, probably tanked, but it probably will recover this month.
- Seaonals point to higher jobless claims today, but the real story is the deterioration in the leading indicators.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- January’s core CPI was hit by spikes in OER, hospital costs, and an array of other service components...
- ...But none of these factors are likely to persist, and the trend in core inflation will keep falling.
- Small firms squeezed by tight credit and higher rates; are rising layoffs and reduced hiring imminent?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Decent January core CPI is likely, but wild cards will make the difference between 0.2% and 0.3%.
- Whatever happened last month, all the signs we follow point to a sustained drop in inflation ahead.
- NFIB members like a rising stock market, but the details of the January survey will be weaker.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The annual revisions to the CPI today are a black box, but they are unlikely to change the big picture.
- Core disinflation will persist, regardless of changes made to the data for last year.
- The Atlanta Fed wage tracker strongly suggests that the spike in January AHE is noise, not signal.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The recent past is not always a good guide to the near future, especially in the labor market.
- Rising layoff announcements and weakening hiring intentions signal slower payroll growth in the spring.
- Huge residual seasonality will push down mortgage applications this month, but the trend is rising.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US