US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Datanotes Chartbook
Healthcare driving payroll growth again; ongoing support will offset some tariff damage.
Weak, but far from definitive.
ADP distracts more than it informs.
- The average effective tariff rate will jump to 22%, from 3%, if Mr. Trump follows through on his plans.
- We now look for a tariff uplift to the core PCE deflator of about 1¼%, half a point more than our prior assumption.
- The outlook for capex and exports is worse too, but fiscal and monetary policy can offset some damage.
Tariff uncertainty is weighing on manufacturing.
- Border Patrol encounters have fallen to zero, but unauthorized immigration likely will rebound soon.
- ICE arrests have risen only slightly; the hit to labor force growth so far is modest.
- A shrinking wage growth premium for job switchers suggests lower core services inflation ahead.
- Headline payrolls likely rose about 140K in March, with private payrolls up by roughly 125K.
- Ignore the upbeat NFIB survey; Conference Board, Indeed and regional Fed data point to a slowdown.
- Continuing claims data point to a stable unemployment rate, but WARN filings point to a rise ahead.
