US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Emerging Asia
- March CPI and PPI data point to a 0.3% rise in the core PCE deflator, with an outside chance of a 0.2% print.
- Personal tax refunds so far in 2024 are little changed compared to last year, but that could still change.
- Higher gas prices probably mean a small fall in the Michigan sentiment survey from its recent highs.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Almost half of the rise in March core CPI services ex-rent prices was due to a wild jump in auto insurance.
- We’re raising our near-term forecasts for rents and hospital services prices, but retaining our optimistic outlook.
- Core PPI inflation should be depressed by falling margins, driven by slowing growth in core retail sales.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The balance of risks points to a decent chance of a 0.2% core CPI print for March, a tenth below consensus.
- Zillow data signal a modest rise in primary rent; OER is wild but likely won’t rise much faster than primary rents.
- Both used vehicle and hotel room prices probably fell in March; the early Easter might depress goods prices too.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Revisions between the first and third payroll estimate have become bigger and increasingly negative.
- Under pressure SMEs likely are under-represented in the first estimate; expect larger downward revisions in Q2.
- We expect another fall in the NFIB index in March, as small businesses remain under pressure.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Homebase jobs data signal March strength; we expect 225K headline payrolls and 175K private…
- ...But the NFIB survey’s hiring intentions measure points to much weaker numbers in Q2.
- Low snow cover likely boosted hours worked and depressed AHE, but the Fed only cares about the ECI.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The plunge in ISM services prices paid to a four-year low points to much slower core services inflation.
- Light vehicle sales slumped in Q1, dragging on overall consumption growth.
- Initial jobless claims likely rose modestly last week, but a sharp increase is likely in the coming months.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Expect little change in the ISM services index today; either way, it’s a poor guide to services spending.
- The ADP employment report is hopelessly unreliable; take it seriously at your peril.
- The JOLTS quit rate is consistent with much weaker wage growth across the spring and summer, at least.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The JOLTS quit rate flagged the surge in wages during the Great Rehiring. It now points to a sharp slowdown.
- Vehicle sales were probably little changed in March, suggesting a drag on Q1 consumption growth.
- A nascent recovery in manufacturing is finding its feet, but core goods prices look set to continue falling.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US