PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, August

Net trade probably only a small drag on headline growth in Q3.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, August

Recovery in home sales likely to be very slow.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, August

Underlying equipment investment is still weak, but computers and aircraft are red hot.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales, August

Suspiciously strong and likely to drop back from here.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

23 September 2024 US Monitor The Fed will abandon plans for a modest, slow easing cycle

• The modest easing planned by the FOMC will be too little, too late, to stabilize the unemployment rate.
• Reductions in the funds rate will lower private sector net interest payments less decisively than in the past.
• Expect a federal funding extension bill to be passed just in time, but bigger squabbles loom next year.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, August

A significant recovery seems unlikely in the near term.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey, September

Little to suggest manufacturing is turning a corner.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

September 2024 - US Economic Chartbook

RESTRICTIVE FED POLICY NO LONGER WARRANTED...

• ...EASING MUST BE RAPID TO STABILIZE THE LABOR MARKET

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US FOMC Statement, September

Fast out the starting blocks; we expect further 50s soon.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, August

Single-family activity unlikely to recover much further.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, September

Lower rates put a floor under new home sales.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, August

 Strong headline numbers, but a grim near-term outlook.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, August

Consistent with another quarter of brisk growth in consumption, but slower growth lies ahead

Samuel TombsUS

16 September 2024 US Monitor Households' balance sheets: Strong at first glance, fragile on closer look

• Households have spent all their “excess” savings; liquid assets returned to their long-run trend in Q2.
• Bank deposits are more unevenly distributed than in the 2010s; rising unemployment will lift saving.
• Fed easing will be less stimulative than usual, due to mortgage refinancing during the pandemic.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US PPI, August 2024

PPI and CPI data suggest the August core PCE rose by about 0.14%, sustaining the slowdown.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US CPI, August

Don’t panic, it's noise not signal; the core PCE probably rose by about 0.22%.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, August

Punishingly high borrowing costs continuing to weigh on hiring and capex plans.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

9 September 2024 US Monitor Weak job gains require rapid easing, but this Fed is inclined to plod

• The trend in private payrolls has halved to just 100K in six months; NFIB data signal further slowing.
• The August dip in unemployment was due to a jump in temporary layoffs unwinding; the trend is rising.
• FOMC members Waller and Williams don’t sense the urgency; expect only a 25bp easing this month.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Service Survey, August

Stable but anemic.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, August

Manufacturing on course for a fresh slump in Q3.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US