PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, January 2026

The underlying trend in core sales still is slowing.

PM Datanote: US Employment, February 2026

What stabilization?.

9 March 2026 US Monitor Labor market is too weak for oil prices to trigger sustained inflation

• Only part of the drop in February payrolls was due to strikes and the birth-death model.
• The trend in first estimates of payrolls is only about 25K, implying falling employment after revisions.
• Drivers soon will be paying $4.00 per gallon for gas, squeezing real disposable income and hitting jobs.

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, February 2026

Encouraging signs, but an unreliable guide to the hard data.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, February 2026

Encouraging signs, but big headwinds remain.

2 March 2026 US Monitor The drop in the personal saving rate is unlikely to be revised away

• The personal saving rate can be heavily revised, but we think most of the recent fall is genuine.
• The low saving rate and soft growth in incomes will restrain growth in consumers’ spending.
• PPI data suggest retailers’ margins have normalized, pointing to slowing core goods inflation ahead.

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, February 2026

Still pointing to a weaker labor market, but big recent revisions raise questions.

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, February 2026

Pointing to a slowdown in underlying GDP growth in Q1.

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales, November / December 2025

The latest sales data are near worthless; homebuilders are still under pressure.

PM Datanote: US Advance GDP Q4 / Spending & Incomes, Q4 / December 2025

Underlying growth still solid in Q4, but likely to wane.

23 February 2026 US Monitor Underlying growth strong in Q4, but likely to underwhelm from here

• Headline GDP growth in Q4 was depressed by the federal shutdown; underlying growth was robust.
• Consumers, however, will slow down this year and non-AI capex will remain weak.
• The effective tariff rate will be slightly lower under the new tariffs, but the inflation outlook is little changed.

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, January 2026

Relapsing independently of the snowstorms.

PM Datanote: US International Trade / Advance Inventories, December 2025

Much weaker GDP growth of about 2% now looks likely in Q4

PM Datanote: US FOMC Minutes, January 2026

Firmly on hold…for now.

February 2026- US Economic Chartbook

JANUARY PAYROLLS ARE JUST A FLASH IN THE PAN...

• ...SLOW JOB GAINS & LOWER INFLATION WILL SPUR EASING

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders / Industrial Production

Less to the recent upturns than initially meets the eye.

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, November/December 2025

Permits still lower than in early 2025; a further drop beckons.

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, February 2026

The outlook for homebuilders remains tough.

17 February 2026 US Monitor January data leave CPI inflation on track to be much lower by year-end

• The rise in the unadjusted January core CPI was similar to typical increases in the late 2010s.
• Used auto prices will rebound, but increases for goods ex-autos will slow after January’s one-time hikes.
• New rents are now barely rising, signalling a substantial fall in CPI shelter inflation over the next year.

PM Datanote: US Employment, January 2026

Above trend due to mild weather and a blip in healthcare jobs.