Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Chartbook Weekly Monitor Daily Monitor

27 September 2024 US Monitor GDP revisions embellish picture of US outperformance post-Covid

  • The estimated increase in real GDP since Q4 2019 has been revised up to 10.7%, from 9.4%.
  • August PCE data will point to continued strength in consumers’ spending, but slower growth likely looms.
  • We look for a 0.14% August core PCE print, slightly below the consensus.

Samuel TombsUS

26 September 2024 US Monitor Underlying demand for capital goods still looks very weak

  • Survey measures of investment intentions point to a weak August durable goods report...
  • ...But for now, solid investment in computers and transportation is offsetting broader weakness. 
  • Seasonally adjustment issues point to another low initial claims print; the labor market is still worsening.

Samuel TombsUS

25 September 2024 US Monitor How will the November elections alter the outlook for fiscal policy?

  • We see limited macro implications if Democrats keep the White House...
  • ...But split control of Congress likely would mean a slight tightening in fiscal policy, given current plans.
  • A Trump victory risks higher inflation and rates, and weaker growth, especially if GOP sweeps Congress.

Samuel TombsUS

24 September 2024 US Monitor GDP revisions should fix puzzle of falling corporate interest payments

  • The GDP-GDI gap is big, but revisions usually result in GDI being pulled towards GDP, not vice-versa. 
  • Firms’ interest payments likely will be revised up, boosting the imputed interest income of households.
  • The employment index of S&P’s PMI survey points to very weak growth in private payrolls this autumn.

Samuel TombsUS

23 September 2024 US Monitor The Fed will abandon plans for a modest, slow easing cycle

  • The modest easing planned by the FOMC will be too little, too late, to stabilize the unemployment rate.
  • Reductions in the funds rate will lower private sector net interest payments less decisively than in the past.
  • Expect a federal funding extension bill to be passed just in time, but bigger squabbles loom next year.

Samuel TombsUS

September 2024 - US Economic Chartbook

RESTRICTIVE FED POLICY NO LONGER WARRANTED...

  • ...EASING MUST BE RAPID TO STABILIZE THE LABOR MARKET

Samuel TombsUS

20 September 2024 US Monitor Struggling seasonals likely the real driver of the drop in jobless claims

  • Claims fell to a 20-week low due to faulty seasonal adjustment and calm weather; the firing trend is flat.
  • The mix of steady layoffs and a further fall in hiring will propel unemployment upwards at a faster pace.
  • Existing home sales dropped back again in August, and a significant recovery is unlikely in the near term.

Samuel TombsUS

19 September 2024 US Monitor FOMC expects 25bp easings ahead, but labor data will force a faster pace

  • The FOMC’s forecasts imply that slow, steady, easing will stabilize the labor market soon...
  • ...But policy is not that powerful and works with long lags; the Committee will ease in 50bp steps again.
  • Housing starts rebounded in August, but a further climb is unlikely in the near term.

Samuel TombsUS

18 September 2024 US Monitor 25bp is more likely than 50; the Fed is set to forecast 100bp this year

  • A 25bp easing today is slightly more likely than a 50bp, but markets will care more about the dotplot. 
  • The Committee likely will forecast 100bp of easing this year, but less than markets expect in 2025.
  • August retail sales point to strong consumption growth in Q3; but the outlook is dimming.

Samuel TombsUS

17 September 2024 US Monitor Homebase data remain implausibly strong; we are looking elsewhere

  • Homebase data point to rapid growth in private payrolls in September, but they are deeply flawed.
  • Hospitality firms dominate the sample, and we have too little data to make good calendar adjustments.
  • Data from Visa and Opentable signal that the control measure of retail sales rose further in August.

Samuel TombsUS

16 September 2024 US Monitor Households' balance sheets: Strong at first glance, fragile on closer look

  • Households have spent all their “excess” savings; liquid assets returned to their long-run trend in Q2.
  • Bank deposits are more unevenly distributed than in the 2010s; rising unemployment will lift saving.
  • Fed easing will be less stimulative than usual, due to mortgage refinancing during the pandemic.

Samuel TombsUS

13 September 2024 US Monitor The August core PCE deflator likely rose at a below-target pace again

  • PPI and CPI data collectively point to a 0.14% increase in the August core PCE deflator.
  • Slowing wage growth, a margin squeeze and lower energy prices will return core inflation to 2% in Q2.
  • Jobless claims have fallen since July, but hiring is dropping faster; expect even lower job growth in Q4.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

12 September 2024 US Monitor Core CPI inflation will keep falling, despite August's small overshoot

  • The uptick in the core CPI in August largely was due to the reversal of erratic price falls in prior months.
  • We expect smaller increases in primary rent, falling services inflation and flat goods prices through Q4.
  • The CPI data tentatively imply a 0.22% core PCE, but will hone our forecast after today’s PPI data. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

11 September 2024 US Monitor Expect a small bounce in the August CPI, despite the disinflation trend

  • We look for a 0.3% rise in the August core CPI, driven by rebounds in hospital charges and airline fares.
  • Underlying core services inflation probably continued to decline, while goods prices likely rose weakly.
  • The rebounding CPI components don’t feed into the core PCE, but the Fed still looks set to ease by 25bp.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

10 September 2024 US Monitor Households' plans to maintain rapid spending growth are implausible

  • Households plan to sustain 5% annualized nominal spending growth, despite income gains of just 3%...
  • ...That requires people to slash the saving rate to a record low 1%, during a worsening labor market.
  • NFIB’s headline index probably dipped in August on political news, but capex plans likely worsened too.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

9 September 2024 US Monitor Weak job gains require rapid easing, but this Fed is inclined to plod

  • The trend in private payrolls has halved to just 100K in six months; NFIB data signal further slowing.
  • The August dip in unemployment was due to a jump in temporary layoffs unwinding; the trend is rising.
  • FOMC members Waller and Williams don’t sense the urgency; expect only a 25bp easing this month.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

6 September 2024 US Monitor Unemployment is often noisy, but an August drop is a sensible bet

  • August unemployment has often surprised to the upside, perhaps due to shifting seasonality…
  • …But continuing claims and state-level data suggest unemployment overshot its trend in July.
  • Growth in unit labor costs is now running well below 2%, pointing to weak underlying inflation. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

5 September 2024 US Monitor The case for another sluggish payroll print in August remains solid

  • Homebase data point to strong August payrolls, but most other indicators signal another weak print.  
  • Our 125K forecast for private payrolls will be unaffected by ADP’s estimate today, whatever it says.
  • Q3 GDP looks set to rise at a modest 1½% rate, despite recent momentum in real consumption. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

4 September 2024 US Monitor The ongoing manufacturing malaise is a headwind for the economy

  • The details of the August ISM manufacturing survey are bleak, despite the uptick in the headline.
  • Weakness in the manufacturing sector looks set to remain a small drag on payrolls and growth.
  • The July JOLTS report will reinforce the message that the labor market is cooling. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

3 September 2024 US Monitor Rapid Fed easing warranted despite solid consumer momentum

  • The core PCE deflator undershot the Fed’s forecast yet again in July; expect more benign prints in H2.
  • Recent strength in consumption lacks solid foundations; the saving rate will be higher a year from now.
  • The ISM probably remained soft in August, pointing to weak growth in manufacturing employment

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

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