US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Datanotes
Still an unreliable guide to services spending.
- Unadjusted initial and continuing jobless claims are almost unchanged from a year ago...
- ...But this is partly due to low seasonal hiring; claims also miss rising youth and long-term unemployment.
- The Q3 productivity jump merely returns it to trend; tariffs and immigration curbs will limit growth in 2026.
- JOLTS hiring less separations ought to provide a useful cross-check on payrolls, but the track record is poor.
- Small business openings remain low, but they lag the NFIB hiring index too much to refute its recent pick-up.
- The inclusion of retailers means the ISM services survey provides a useful steer on tariff-driven inflation.
- We look for a 0.3% increase in the December core CPI, with the risks skewed strongly towards a 0.4% print.
- Late data collection biased downwards the November CPIs for core goods and lodging away from home...
- ...These CPIs will rebound in December, alongside a big rise in airline fares and possibly auto insurance.
Still struggling for momentum.
- Tariff revenues fell in December and remain well below levels expected by independent fiscal watchdogs.
- Nearly all of the boost to consumer prices from the tariffs has filtered through; the outlook is benign.
- Home sales are likely to recover in 2026 as mortgage rates fall, but still fall short of pre-pandemic levels.
Yet more grim news on the labor market.
Manufacturing is surviving rather than thriving.
Q3's strength is unlikely to be sustained.
- We think GDP grew by 3½% in Q3, underpinned by a solid increase in consumers’ spending.
- AI-related capex likely also lifted fixed investment, while net trade made a big positive contribution too.
- But growth seems to have slowed sharply in Q4, mostly due to weakness among households.
Limited further upside for sales.
- Measurement issues depressed November goods prices, airline fares, rent and auto insurance....
- ...We see no evidence of a slowing in the trend in core-core services prices yet.
- But the outlook looks benign; tariffs are now mostly passed through, while wages and rents are slowing.
The implied jump in services inflation makes little sense.
October's strength in control sales looks unlikely to last.
Lackluster, but not alarming enough for a January easing.
- The NFIB survey’s hiring intentions index increased in November to its highest level since May 2023...
- ...But first estimates of private payrolls have undershot its implied level by 50K on average since Q1.
- The regional Fed surveys and the Census Bureau’s biweekly business survey show weaker hiring plans.
- Private payrolls are no longer slowing and the jump in unemployment was mostly due to the shutdown.
- Unemployment ex-temporary layoffs, however, is above its pre-Covid norm, and wider slack is building.
- Some indicators of hiring indicators have improved recently, but layoff plans also have picked up.
Likely a high watermark for now.
Manufacturing capex and hiring likely to remain very weak
- Core CPI inflation likely fell to 2.9% in November, slightly below consensus, from 3.0% in September.
- Auto prices have remained unaffected by tariffs; increases in other goods prices have slowed.
- The rebound in airline fares probably has petered out; rent increases likely continue to slow gradually.
