US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Global Weekly Monitor
Probably overstating the labor market’s health.
- We look for a 0.2% increase in the headline CPI and a 0.3% rise in the core, despite residual seasonality.
- Web-scraped data point to slowing durable goods prices; Winter Storm Fern likely hit clothing prices.
- Increases in prices for streaming services, live events and rent likely were all much smaller than a year ago.
Too unreliable to be of much use.
Trade's contribution to Q4 GDP growth probably significant but not enormous.
- Keeping Mr. Trump, Senators and markets all on-side for three months will be no easy task for Mr. Warsh.
- If he is confirmed, the President might need to use Mr. Miran’s seat on the Board, resulting in no dovish shift.
- Mr. Warsh claims monetary policy alone determines inflation; he’s boxed in if it doesn’t fall this year.
Spending slowdown and further labor market weakness are likely.
Consumption strong through November, but on shaky foundations.
Low claims largely due to lower-than-usual post-holiday layoffs.
- The Fed will leave rates on hold this week, but three members will vote to ease again...
- ...And key members will place more weight on the further slowdown in payrolls than robust GDP.
- We still expect rising unemployment to spur easing in H1, but major personnel changes now look less likely.
- US import prices rose by three percentage points less than global import prices in the year to October.
- Foreign manufacturers of autos and alcoholic drinks have slashed prices to remain competitive.
- Auto manufacturers will rebuild margins in 2026, but other supply chains will adapt to cut tariff exposure.
Muted rebound in core goods prices suggests tariff pass-through is slowing.
Increasingly untrustworthy.
Overstating the gloom, but a downbeat message nonetheless.
Signs of stabilization, but big headwinds remain.
Still weak enough to sustain the pressure for more Fed easing.
- The trend in payrolls is unlikely to improve in Q1; catch-up growth in healthcare jobs is now over...
- ...And December’s jump in leisure and hospitality payrolls looks set to unwind, just like a year ago.
- The sharp rise in involuntary part-time working is a red flag, signaling that layoffs will pick up in Q1.
Still an unreliable guide to services spending.
Still struggling for momentum.
