PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, March

Rounding off another weak quarter for equipment investment.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales/Retail Sales Annual Revisions

Residential investment bounced in Q1.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, April 2024

Yet another sign growth in payrolls is slowing sharply.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

22 April 2024 US Monitor Slowing income growth and a rising saving rate threaten consumption

• Last year’s strong consumption was due to rapid real income growth; the saving rate rose.
• Real income growth will be much slower this year, so if the saving rate keeps rising, spending will suffer.
• Consumption might slow gradually, but in the 2001 business cycle recession, growth lurched down.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, March 2024

This housing market recovery will be slow.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Jobless Claims/Philly Fed

Tranquil labor market conditions unlikely to last much longer.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, March

Encouraging, but too soon to call a real recovery.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: Housing Starts, March 2024

Large fall is likely an Easter timing quirk; the trend still looks flat.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US NAHB Index, April

Limited inventory of existing homes continues to help homebuilders.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, March

Consumption is still booming...for now.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Empire State Survey: Too volatile to make us fear a renewed downturn in manufacturing

Too volatile to make us fear a renewed downturn in manufacturing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, April prelim

Still high, but likely peaked

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

15 April 2024 US Monitor Inflation fundamentals are good; look forwards, not backwards

• Slowing wage gains, normalized supply chains, and a shrinking money supply will constrain inflation…
• …But anything can happen over periods as short as a few months, and the Fed is backward-looking.
• March core retail sales appear to have been soft, capping a sluggish first quarter.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US PPI: Goods disinflation continues; margins and other services still sticky

Goods disinflation continues; margins and other services still sticky.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, April 6

Generous seasonals still depressing claims, but an uptrend is coming.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US FOMC Minutes, March

Some downside growth risks recognized, but attention still mostly on inflation

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US CPI, March

Ouch. June is now a much longer shot.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US NFIB Survey, March

Small businesses are struggling.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

8 April 2024 US Monitor No softening yet in job growth, but Q2 likely will be very different

• The initial March jobs numbers were even stronger than Homebase implied, but things can change…
• ...We’re sticking to our base-case view that payroll growth will slow markedly in the second quarter.
• Monetary tightening works with long lags, and multiple indicators now point to slower hiring and rising layoffs.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Jobless Claims, March 30

Edging up, despite generous seasonals.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US