PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, March

A gradual recovery ahead

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Personal Income & Spending/Trade, February

Core prices back on track; real after-tax income growth slowing sharply

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Chicago PMI, March

Disappointing but not definitive

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

1 April 2024 US Monitor Core PCE back on track following the January jump

• February’s subdued core PCE price data support the idea that January’s spike was a one-time fluke.
• Consumption is on track for a 2% gain in Q1, down from 3.3% in Q4, and real income growth is slowing
• A modest uptick in ISM manufacturing is a decent bet, but the sector remains weak.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, March

Further signs of a consumer slowdown.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, February 2024

Consistent with still-subdued business investment.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales, February

Probably a blip in the uptrend

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

25 March 2024 US Monitor Manufacturing output is stabilizing, but a real rebound remains distant

• The March Philly Fed and S&P surveys suggest the manufacturing sector’s downturn is over...
• ...But ongoing inventory rundowns and depressed global demand point to only modest growth ahead.
• New home sales likely rose for a third straight month in February; homebuilders will hang on to market share.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, March

Unlikely to remain as strong as February

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Philly Fed/Weekly Claims

Manufacturers are past the worst, but claims will rise this spring.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US NAHB Survey, March

Lower rates still supporting for homebuilders

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, March

Still consistent with resilient growth in consumption, for now

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, February: No upturn visible yet

No upturn visible yet

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Empire State Survey: No signs of recovery yet

No signs of recovery yet

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

18 March 2024 US Monitor The wall between the Fed and the private sector is gone; rates now hurt

• The shrinking stock of excess savings has exposed most households and small firms to the Fed’s hikes…
• Recent evidence of slowing growth is not yet definitive, but it has our attention.
• Nothing would shift market expectations of faster easing than a clear softening in payrolls; is it coming?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: U.S. PPI, February 2024

Disappointing enough to make a first easing in May much less likely

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: Retail Sales, February 2024

Downward revisions and a muted February recovery signal an emerging consumer slowdown.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Consumer Prices, February

More rent oddities but the bigger picture is fine

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US NFIB Survey, February

Small businesses feeling the pinch

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Employment, February

The current trend in payrolls is steady, but a clear downturn is coming

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US