PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, March

Trade and inventories data leave a negative Q1 GDP print looking far more likely.

PM Datanote: US Personal Income & Spending / Pending Home Sales

Growth in services spending has slowed only modestly, but a sharper decline lies ahead.

PM Datanote: US Advance GDP, Q1

Tariffs distort the numbers, but underlying growth was already slowing in Q1.

PM Datanote: US ECI / ADP Employment

The downshift in labor cost inflation will resume, soon.

PM Datanote: US ECI / ADP Employment

The downshift in labor cost inflation will resume, soon.

2 May 2025 US Monitor Claims boosted by school holiday timing, but the trend will rise soon

• Last week's jump in initial claims was entirely due to the timing of school holidays in New York state. 
• Leading indicators, however, are continuing to deteriorate; layoffs in logistics are just a couple weeks off.
• The April ISM manufacturing survey points to a plunge in output and higher core goods prices.

PM Datanote: US JOLTS, March

The post-election pick-up in labor demand has fully unwound.

1 May 2025 US Monitor The Q1 fall in GDP misleads, but weak growth lies ahead this year

• The 0.3% drop in headline Q1 GDP exaggerates how rapidly the economy was slowing...
• ...Consumers' spending on services and non-equipment business investment kept rising in Q1.
• The tariff shock, however, will be much more intense in a few months' time; stagnation lies ahead.