US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Daily Monitor Chartbook
- Solid increases in consumers’ spending in October and November point to a 2½-to-3% gain in Q4…
- …But the sustainable pace now is far lower, given weak income growth and a rock-bottom saving rate.
- FOMC members’ forecasts for Q4 core PCE inflation were too high; they’re unduly gloomy about 2026 too.
- Tax refunds this year likely will exceed 2025’s total by about $90B, equal to 0.4% of disposable income...
- ...Most refunds will be made over the next three months, facilitating a temporary jump in spending.
- Low confidence and saving, however, mean we expect only one-third of the extra cash to be spent.
- GDPNow’s forecast track record is far from perfect, and its latest projections are based on limited data.
- We think it is overstating the likely strength of consumption, and the boost from trade and inventories.
- The EU’s proposed tariffs on US exports would hurt little, but services barriers could be a bigger deal.
- Low claims likely reflect cautious temporary hiring in Q4, rather than reviving labor demand.
- Only one quarter of the unemployed claim benefits; new entrants are struggling to find their first job.
- Spending will be little changed and CPI/PCE inflation unaffected if ACA tax credits do not return.
Muted rebound in core goods prices suggests tariff pass-through is slowing.
Increasingly untrustworthy.
- Consumers’ spending probably slowed in Q4, despite November’s respectable rise in retail sales.
- We look for spending growth of 1½-to-2%, far weaker than the 3.5% leap in Q3.
- The latest PPI data show retailers are continuing to shield consumers from tariff-driven cost increases.
- The core CPI rose at an average monthly pace of just 0.13% between September and December.
- Tariff-driven price rises have slowed, with retailers resorting to cutting other costs instead.
- The run-rate of core goods prices will pick up again, but will undershoot last summer’s pace
- We look for an underwhelming 0.2% rise in retail sales in November, with control sales unchanged.
- A raft of indicators suggests consumers are tiring; we look for spending growth of just 1% in Q4.
- The Fed is still independent; a grand jury is unlikely to bring an indictment against Chair Powell.
