Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Datanotes Daily Monitor Emerging Asia

PM Datanote: US FOMC Statement, September

Fast out the starting blocks; we expect further 50s soon.

Samuel TombsUS

20 September 2024 US Monitor Struggling seasonals likely the real driver of the drop in jobless claims

  • Claims fell to a 20-week low due to faulty seasonal adjustment and calm weather; the firing trend is flat.
  • The mix of steady layoffs and a further fall in hiring will propel unemployment upwards at a faster pace.
  • Existing home sales dropped back again in August, and a significant recovery is unlikely in the near term.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, August

Single-family activity unlikely to recover much further.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

19 September 2024 US Monitor FOMC expects 25bp easings ahead, but labor data will force a faster pace

  • The FOMC’s forecasts imply that slow, steady, easing will stabilize the labor market soon...
  • ...But policy is not that powerful and works with long lags; the Committee will ease in 50bp steps again.
  • Housing starts rebounded in August, but a further climb is unlikely in the near term.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, August

 Strong headline numbers, but a grim near-term outlook.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, August

Consistent with another quarter of brisk growth in consumption, but slower growth lies ahead

Samuel TombsUS

18 September 2024 US Monitor 25bp is more likely than 50; the Fed is set to forecast 100bp this year

  • A 25bp easing today is slightly more likely than a 50bp, but markets will care more about the dotplot. 
  • The Committee likely will forecast 100bp of easing this year, but less than markets expect in 2025.
  • August retail sales point to strong consumption growth in Q3; but the outlook is dimming.

Samuel TombsUS

17 September 2024 US Monitor Homebase data remain implausibly strong; we are looking elsewhere

  • Homebase data point to rapid growth in private payrolls in September, but they are deeply flawed.
  • Hospitality firms dominate the sample, and we have too little data to make good calendar adjustments.
  • Data from Visa and Opentable signal that the control measure of retail sales rose further in August.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US PPI, August 2024

PPI and CPI data suggest the August core PCE rose by about 0.14%, sustaining the slowdown.

Samuel TombsUS

13 September 2024 US Monitor The August core PCE deflator likely rose at a below-target pace again

  • PPI and CPI data collectively point to a 0.14% increase in the August core PCE deflator.
  • Slowing wage growth, a margin squeeze and lower energy prices will return core inflation to 2% in Q2.
  • Jobless claims have fallen since July, but hiring is dropping faster; expect even lower job growth in Q4.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US CPI, August

Don’t panic, it's noise not signal; the core PCE probably rose by about 0.22%.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

12 September 2024 US Monitor Core CPI inflation will keep falling, despite August's small overshoot

  • The uptick in the core CPI in August largely was due to the reversal of erratic price falls in prior months.
  • We expect smaller increases in primary rent, falling services inflation and flat goods prices through Q4.
  • The CPI data tentatively imply a 0.22% core PCE, but will hone our forecast after today’s PPI data. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, August

Punishingly high borrowing costs continuing to weigh on hiring and capex plans.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

11 September 2024 US Monitor Expect a small bounce in the August CPI, despite the disinflation trend

  • We look for a 0.3% rise in the August core CPI, driven by rebounds in hospital charges and airline fares.
  • Underlying core services inflation probably continued to decline, while goods prices likely rose weakly.
  • The rebounding CPI components don’t feed into the core PCE, but the Fed still looks set to ease by 25bp.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

10 September 2024 US Monitor Households' plans to maintain rapid spending growth are implausible

  • Households plan to sustain 5% annualized nominal spending growth, despite income gains of just 3%...
  • ...That requires people to slash the saving rate to a record low 1%, during a worsening labor market.
  • NFIB’s headline index probably dipped in August on political news, but capex plans likely worsened too.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

6 September 2024 US Monitor Unemployment is often noisy, but an August drop is a sensible bet

  • August unemployment has often surprised to the upside, perhaps due to shifting seasonality…
  • …But continuing claims and state-level data suggest unemployment overshot its trend in July.
  • Growth in unit labor costs is now running well below 2%, pointing to weak underlying inflation. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

5 September 2024 US Monitor The case for another sluggish payroll print in August remains solid

  • Homebase data point to strong August payrolls, but most other indicators signal another weak print.  
  • Our 125K forecast for private payrolls will be unaffected by ADP’s estimate today, whatever it says.
  • Q3 GDP looks set to rise at a modest 1½% rate, despite recent momentum in real consumption. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,