US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Daily Monitor Weekly Monitor
- ADP’s numbers have considerably understated the initial official estimates of private payrolls this year.
- Reliable surveys suggest an initial private print of 75K-to-100K in November, still too soft for comfort.
- A raft of indicators point to consumer weakness in Q4. We think spending will rise by only around ½%.
- Lower immigration, AI, tariffs and federal job cuts have potential to lift the natural unemployment rate...
- ...But firms are filling openings more easily and plan to slow wage growth, pointing to excess unemployment.
- No signs of excessive unemployment by state or by sector, indicative of a still-low equilibrium rate.
Core goods inflation likely to retreat in H1 2026.
- Investors see a near-90% chance of the FOMC easing next week, back to levels before October’s meeting.
- Sometimes, the Chair moves markets during the blackout via the WSJ, but that seems unlikely now.
- Manufacturing payrolls have fallen materially in 2025, but likely aren’t a canary in the coalmine this time.
- The average effective tariff rate is currently just 12%, far short of the near-20% widely expected in spring.
- China imports have dived; more imports than expected from Canada and Mexico are USMCA-compliant.
- The plunge in the Cass Freight Index looks alarming, but it probably is overstating weakness in industry.
Improving slightly, but investment still soft outside of tech.
Weak jobs market continues to depress consumers.
Weak September sales are a sign of what's to come.
Core PCE inflation set to undershoot the FOMC’s forecast in Q4.
- PPI and CPI data imply the core PCE deflator rose by just 0.22% in September.
- Goods price rises are slowing and retailers, especially auto retailers, are still partially absorbing the tariffs.
- The Conference Board’s consumer survey implies the labor market need more support from the FOMC.
- We look for a subpar 0.3% increase in September retail sales, consistent with real spending edging down.
- Food service sales likely fell sharply, while the more reliable indicators of control sales were soft.
- Bloomberg Second Measure data, Google search volumes and hotel room occupancy signal a weak Q4.
- Growth in average hourly earnings is resilient because fewer entry level workers are being hired...
- ...Rising unemployment, the low quits rate and a wide range of surveys all point to an underlying slowdown.
- The NY Fed’s Williams still sees room to ease policy “...in the near term”, bolstering our December call.
Boost from lower rates likely has only a bit further to run.
Payrolls flattered by the seasonals; rising unemployment keeps a December easing in play.
December hangs in the balance, but substantial easing probably still lies ahead.
- The pick-up in payrolls was a by-product of the most generous September seasonal on record...
- ...The chances of a downward revision are very high; October’s report will be substantially weaker too.
- The rise in the unemployment rate is being fuelled by new entrants and layoffs; expect more to come in Q4.
Dip in mortgage rates providing only a small tailwind.
- The BLS’ new data calendar means today’s employment report is make-or-break for a December easing.
- The GDPNow model is running a bit too hot; GDP growth in Q3 of about 31/2% seems more likely.
- October’s jump in WARN filings is due to new laws in Washington state; the trend is rising moderately.
- We expect a 50K increase in September payrolls and a 75K rise in private jobs, lifted by residual seasonality.
- The unemployment rate usually drops in September, but surveys point to a deteriorating trend.
- Growth in average hourly earnings likely was limited by a calendar quirk, but the trend is slowing too.
- AI has had a net positive impact on the labor market this year; job losses in tech have been small...
- ...While surging stock prices for AI firms have boosted households’ spending and, therefore, employment.
- Layoffs, however, likely will step up next year as AI adoption becomes more widespread.
