US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Emerging Asia Daily Monitor
Low response rate suggests jump in payrolls very likely to be revised away.
Samuel TombsUS
Still consistent with further falls in services inflation.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Boosted marginally by Boeing; expect a further uplift from Hurricane Helene ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Payrolls likely rose by only 135K in September, constrained by slow private and government hiring.
- Initial claims have been distorted by iffy seasonals; unemployment won’t track the drop in continuing claims.
- October private job growth will be close to zero, if strikes at Boeing and the ports continue next week.
Samuel TombsUS
Indicators with a better track record paint a much weaker picture.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a small rise in initial claims to about 225K, from 218K, driven by rolling furloughs at Boeing.
- Storm Helene likely will lift claims to about 250K soon; port-related disruption may add to the pick up.
- The end of the student loan payment “on-ramp” will only hit annual consumption by 0.15% at most.
Samuel TombsUS
Still depressed; core goods prices likely to keep falling.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Supply chains have enough flex for a one-week ports strike to have only a negligible impact on GDP...
- ...But a more protracted walkout would weigh greatly on the manufacturing and retail sectors.
- Manufacturing and residential construction payrolls both look likely to decline in the coming months.
Samuel TombsUS
- Only NFIB, Conference Board and Indeed data predict jobs growth better than a
six-month average.
- Collectively, these indicators point to a 115K rise in September private payrolls and a 135K in total NFP.
- The unemployment rate likely edged up; the recent fall in continuing claims is not indicative of the trend.
Samuel TombsUS
Net trade probably only a small drag on headline growth in Q3.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Recovery in home sales likely to be very slow.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Underlying equipment investment is still weak, but computers and aircraft are red hot.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Suspiciously strong and likely to drop back from here.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The estimated increase in real GDP since Q4 2019 has been revised up to 10.7%, from 9.4%.
- August PCE data will point to continued strength in consumers’ spending, but slower growth likely looms.
- We look for a 0.14% August core PCE print, slightly below the consensus.
Samuel TombsUS
- Survey measures of investment intentions point to a weak August durable goods report...
- ...But for now, solid investment in computers and transportation is offsetting broader weakness.
- Seasonally adjustment issues point to another low initial claims print; the labor market is still worsening.
Samuel TombsUS
- We see limited macro implications if Democrats keep the White House...
- ...But split control of Congress likely would mean a slight tightening in fiscal policy, given current plans.
- A Trump victory risks higher inflation and rates, and weaker growth, especially if GOP sweeps Congress.
Samuel TombsUS
- The GDP-GDI gap is big, but revisions usually result in GDI being pulled towards GDP, not vice-versa.
- Firms’ interest payments likely will be revised up, boosting the imputed interest income of households.
- The employment index of S&P’s PMI survey points to very weak growth in private payrolls this autumn.
Samuel TombsUS
A significant recovery seems unlikely in the near term.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Little to suggest manufacturing is turning a corner.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
