US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Emerging Asia Daily Monitor
- Capex rose in 2017-to-18 after the introduction of 100% bonus depreciation, but it was not the key driver.
- Tapering bonus depreciation in 2023 and 2024 left capex unscathed; firms are now worried about tariffs.
- Average hourly earnings growth is often volatile, but the recent slowdown has been flagged by surveys too.
A big jump in services inflation still looks unlikely.
Implausible sector breakdown highlights ADP's uselessness.
Supply-side disruptions giving way to weak demand.
- The average effective tariff rate will rise by a further 6pp next week, if no new trade deals are signed.
- But we doubt these additional tariffs will last; retaliation by trade partners will spur another climbdown.
- The construction slump signals weaker growth in activity and employment, but likely not a recession
- Rising JOLTS job openings are driven by hospitality firms rehiring to comply with employment laws...
- ...Measurement problems also boosting the numbers; large downward revisions are now common.
- Tariff revenues currently equal 10% of the value of imports, but the effective tariff rate likely is higher.
- The abundance of weak surveys points to a 100K first estimate for June payrolls.
- Downward revisions to estimated payrolls in April and May also are likely.
- Scraps of evidence suggest late responses from struggling small businesses explains the pattern.
