PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, June

Weak demand and recovering supply are putting pressure on prices.

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, June

The underlying trend in residential construction is flat and likely to turn lower.

PM Datanote: US Michigan Sentiment Survey, July

Hard to trust given the rock-bottom response rate.

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, July 12

Low simply because auto plant shutdowns have been less prevalent than usual.

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, June

Sales growth less impressive in real terms; consumer slowdown continues.

21 July 2025 US Monitor Will the unwinding of June's jump in education jobs depress Q3 payrolls?

• The jump in June education jobs is more likely to be revised away than to unwind over coming months.
• June education jobs were revised down in 2022, 2023 and 2024; no other data corroborate the 2025 jump.
• A structural break following a mid-2024 methodology change makes the Michigan survey hard to believe.

PM Datanote: US PPI, June

Services disinflation is partly countering the tariff uplift to goods prices.

PM Datanote: US CPI, June

A knock-out punch to the tariff inflation deniers.

14 July 2025 US Monitor Income tax clarity won't reinvigorate households' spending in Q3

• The slowdown in consumption this year has been sharpest in areas dominated by higher earners...
• ...Slower asset price gains and expected real wage declines have weighed more than tax hike risk.
• Mortgage applications have risen sharply; people are fed up waiting for mortgage rates to fall.

PM Datanote: US FOMC Minutes, June 18 Meeting

Committee is more clearly split; weaker labor market to tip the balance by September.

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, June

Plunging response rate raises big questions about reliability.

7 July 2025 US Monitor Markets drew the wrong conclusions from June's labor market data

• June private payrolls ex-education and healthcare rose just 23K; revisions will reveal an even weaker picture.
• Hiring intentions remain depressed; new tax breaks are unlikely to offset tariff costs and uncertainty soon.
• The drop in unemployment looks like noise; payroll growth will undershoot the break-even rate in H2.

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, June

A big jump in services inflation still looks unlikely.

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, June

Implausible sector breakdown highlights ADP's uselessness.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, June

Supply-side disruptions giving way to weak demand.

30 June 2025 US Monitor Consumers' spending is rapidly losing momentum

• Spending fell by 0.3% in May, with little chance of a June rebound, and further weakness likely in Q3.
• The 0.4% fall in May incomes was due to one-time factors, but real income growth is set to stagnate.
• The core PCE deflator surprised to the upside in May, but the 0.18% rise will pale in comparison to June.

PM Datanote: US Advance Economic Indicators, May

GDP on course for a misleading jump in Q2.

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales, May

IMay slump brings sales back to reality.

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence / Chair Powell Monetary Policy Testimony

Inflation expectations dropping back, labor market still weakening.

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, May

Sales likely to continue to stagnate.