PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, September 2025

Going nowhere fast.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, November 2025

Core goods inflation likely to retreat in H1 2026.

1 December 2025 US Monitor Why are tariff revenues falling short of everyone's projections?

• The average effective tariff rate is currently just 12%, far short of the near-20% widely expected in spring.
• China imports have dived; more imports than expected from Canada and Mexico are USMCA-compliant.
• The plunge in the Cass Freight Index looks alarming, but it probably is overstating weakness in industry.

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, September 2025

Improving slightly, but investment still soft outside of tech.

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence/Pending Home Sales

Weak jobs market continues to depress consumers.

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, September 2025

Weak September sales are a sign of what's to come.

PM Datanote: US PPI, September 2025

Core PCE inflation set to undershoot the FOMC’s forecast in Q4.

24 November 2025 US Monitor Near-4% growth in average hourly earnings overstates the trend

• Growth in average hourly earnings is resilient because fewer entry level workers are being hired...
• ...Rising unemployment, the low quits rate and a wide range of surveys all point to an underlying slowdown.
• The NY Fed’s Williams still sees room to ease policy “...in the near term”, bolstering our December call.

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, October 2025

Boost from lower rates likely has only a bit further to run.

PM Datanote: US Employment, October 2025

Payrolls flattered by the seasonals; rising unemployment keeps a December easing in play.

PM Datanote: US FOMC Minutes, October 2025

December hangs in the balance, but substantial easing probably still lies ahead.

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, November 2025

Dip in mortgage rates providing only a small tailwind.

17 November 2025 US Monitor Inflation outlook insensitive to the Supreme Court's tariff decision

• Retailers usually pass on the bulk of any cost increases to consumers, but bank most of any savings.
• Retailers won’t cut prices only to hike them again if the White House reimposes tariffs via other routes.
• The AI stock sell-off is small so far, but a deeper rout would have a tangible impact on GDP growth.

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, October 2025

 Pointing to a sharp slowdown in wage growth.

PM Datanote: US Michigan Sentiment Survey, November 2025

Reliability questionable, but grim reading nonetheless.

10 November 2025 US Monitor The Michigan confidence survey is disconcerting, despite its flaws

• Comparing November’s UoM survey to its historical range overstates the depth of consumer gloom...
• ...But the massive deterioration in major purchase plans this year is too big to simply brush aside.
• Small businesses are bearing down on wage growth; pay rises of just 3% will be the norm next year.

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, October 2025

Likely sending a false alarm on services inflation.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, October 2025

Tariff-led jump goods inflation likely to be temporary.

3 November 2025 US Monitor Indicators of consumers' spending are starting to flash amber

• Continuing claims have returned to their rising trend; Homebase and Indeed data are also weakening.
• Bloomberg Second Measure and Redbook data point to retail sales losing momentum last month.
• Airline passenger numbers have picked up, but hotel room occupancy is now 2pp lower than a year ago.

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, September 2025

Rates still too high for a sustained housing market renaissance.