US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Emerging Asia Weekly Monitor
- Meager job gains in July and huge downward revisions leave payrolls looking far weaker than before.
- Private payrolls ex-healthcare fell by 16K per month on average in the three months to July.
- The stable unemployment rate reflects young people deferring active job search; hidden slack is mounting.
Core inflation set to climb further as spending barely grows.
Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024.
Underlying investment looks stagnant at best.
- We think headline GDP leapt by around 3% in Q2 overall, but underlying growth was much weaker…
- …Look for a tepid 1½% gain consumers’ spending and a drop of about 2½% in fixed investment…
- …But measurement issues likely meant a huge contribution from net trade was only partly offset elsewhere.
Bounce in the PMI looks too good to be true.
Auto shutdowns distort the picture; labor market likely still loosening.
Weak demand and recovering supply are putting pressure on prices.
The underlying trend in residential construction is flat and likely to turn lower.
Hard to trust given the rock-bottom response rate.
Low simply because auto plant shutdowns have been less prevalent than usual.
Sales growth less impressive in real terms; consumer slowdown continues.
- The jump in June education jobs is more likely to be revised away than to unwind over coming months.
- June education jobs were revised down in 2022, 2023 and 2024; no other data corroborate the 2025 jump.
- A structural break following a mid-2024 methodology change makes the Michigan survey hard to believe.
Services disinflation is partly countering the tariff uplift to goods prices.
A knock-out punch to the tariff inflation deniers.
- The slowdown in consumption this year has been sharpest in areas dominated by higher earners...
- ...Slower asset price gains and expected real wage declines have weighed more than tax hike risk.
- Mortgage applications have risen sharply; people are fed up waiting for mortgage rates to fall.
Committee is more clearly split; weaker labor market to tip the balance by September.
Plunging response rate raises big questions about reliability.
- June private payrolls ex-education and healthcare rose just 23K; revisions will reveal an even weaker picture.
- Hiring intentions remain depressed; new tax breaks are unlikely to offset tariff costs and uncertainty soon.
- The drop in unemployment looks like noise; payroll growth will undershoot the break-even rate in H2.
