Limited inventory of existing homes continues to help homebuilders.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Consumption is still booming...for now.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Too volatile to make us fear a renewed downturn in manufacturing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Slowing wage gains, normalized supply chains, and a shrinking money supply will constrain inflation…
- …But anything can happen over periods as short as a few months, and the Fed is backward-looking.
- March core retail sales appear to have been soft, capping a sluggish first quarter.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Goods disinflation continues; margins and other services still sticky.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Generous seasonals still depressing claims, but an uptrend is coming.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Some downside growth risks recognized, but attention still mostly on inflation
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The initial March jobs numbers were even stronger than Homebase implied, but things can change…
- ...We’re sticking to our base-case view that payroll growth will slow markedly in the second quarter.
- Monetary tightening works with long lags, and multiple indicators now point to slower hiring and rising layoffs.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Cost pressures ease further for services companies
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Core prices back on track; real after-tax income growth slowing sharply
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- February’s subdued core PCE price data support the idea that January’s spike was a one-time fluke.
- Consumption is on track for a 2% gain in Q1, down from 3.3% in Q4, and real income growth is slowing
- A modest uptick in ISM manufacturing is a decent bet, but the sector remains weak.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US