US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Weekly Monitor
Manufacturing is surviving rather than thriving.
Q3's strength is unlikely to be sustained.
- We look for a modest 75K rise in payrolls and a small fall in the unemployment rate to 4.5% in December.
- Retailers and hospitality firms hired cautiously; consumers continue to report worsening job availability.
- The FOMC still looks likely to pause in January, but the case for easing again will be robust by March.
Limited further upside for sales.
- Only a small fraction of the big downward benchmark revision to payrolls is due to the birth-death model.
- The sectoral mix of the revision implies benchmarking is removing only a few unauthorized workers.
- The main problem—still unresolved—is the BLS is not obtaining a representative sample of firms.
The implied jump in services inflation makes little sense.
October's strength in control sales looks unlikely to last.
Lackluster, but not alarming enough for a January easing.
Likely a high watermark for now.
Manufacturing capex and hiring likely to remain very weak
- We expect a first estimate of a mere 50K rise in November payrolls, despite slightly better surveys...
- ...Retailers have hired relatively few seasonal workers; the upward bias in the first estimate should be mild.
- The unemployment rate likely ticked up to 4.5% in November, from 4.4% in October.
Much weaker wage growth likely lies ahead.
Soft September sets for stage for more consumer weakness in Q4.
- Spending rose by 2.7% in Q3, but the stagnation in September likely foreshadows a very weak Q4.
- Real incomes are barely rising, and many near-real time indicators point to a sharp slowdown in growth.
- Q1 likely will be weak too, but bumper tax refunds and a pick-up in hiring will support a Q2 revival.
Core goods inflation likely to retreat in H1 2026.
- The average effective tariff rate is currently just 12%, far short of the near-20% widely expected in spring.
- China imports have dived; more imports than expected from Canada and Mexico are USMCA-compliant.
- The plunge in the Cass Freight Index looks alarming, but it probably is overstating weakness in industry.
