PM Datanote: US Chair Powell Jackson Hole Speech, August 2025

A September easing looks nailed on, with more likely to follow.

24 August 2025 US Monitor We think a September easing will be the first of many

• Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech flags a September easing, with more cuts likely to follow.
• High long-term Treasury yields reflect policy risks rather than the Fed losing its inflation credibility…
• …We think the Trump administration should step back and let the FOMC do its job.

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI / Existing Home Sales

The rebound in growth implied by the PMI looks too good to be true.

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, August 16, 2025

Labor market slack is gradually building.

PM Datanote: US FOMC Minutes, July 2025

July’s weak employment report means inflation worries look overblown.

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, July 2025

July bounce in starts likely noise; underlying trends remain weak.

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, August 2025

The outlook for homebuilding remains grim. 

PM Datanote: US Producer Prices, July 2025

Price pressures are building, but July's data overstate the intensity.

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, August 9

 Stable but subdued.

18 August 2025 US Monitor Consumption growth is stabilizing, at a sluggish pace

• Growth in consumers’ real spending has stabilized following in sharp slowdown in H1 2025...
• ...But the labor market is set to remain weak, and most of the uplift to prices from tariffs lies ahead.
• We think spending will grow only at a meager 1-to-1½% pace in second half of this year.