PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, February 2026

The outlook for homebuilders remains tough.

17 February 2026 US Monitor January data leave CPI inflation on track to be much lower by year-end

• The rise in the unadjusted January core CPI was similar to typical increases in the late 2010s.
• Used auto prices will rebound, but increases for goods ex-autos will slow after January’s one-time hikes.
• New rents are now barely rising, signalling a substantial fall in CPI shelter inflation over the next year.

PM Datanote: US Employment, January 2026

Above trend due to mild weather and a blip in healthcare jobs.

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, December 2025

Weak underlying sales probably a sign of what's to come.

PM Datanote: US Employment Cost Index, Q4 2025

Still cooling.

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, January 2026

Probably overstating the labor market’s health.

9 February 2026 US Monitor January CPI likely to undershoot the consensus

• We look for a 0.2% increase in the headline CPI and a 0.3% rise in the core, despite residual seasonality.
• Web-scraped data point to slowing durable goods prices; Winter Storm Fern likely hit clothing prices.
• Increases in prices for streaming services, live events and rent likely were all much smaller than a year ago.

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, January 2026

Too unreliable to be of much use.

PM Datanote: US International Trade, November 2025

Trade's contribution to Q4 GDP growth probably significant but not enormous.

2 February 2026 US Monitor Rates unlikely to track a much lower path with Warsh at the Fed

• Keeping Mr. Trump, Senators and markets all on-side for three months will be no easy task for Mr. Warsh.
• If he is confirmed, the President might need to use Mr. Miran’s seat on the Board, resulting in no dovish shift.
• Mr. Warsh claims monetary policy alone determines inflation; he’s boxed in if it doesn’t fall this year.