Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Datanotes Weekly Monitor

PM Datanote: US Personal Income & Spending, July

Undershooting the Fed’s June core PCE forecast for the third straight month.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, July

Housing market activity likely to remain very weak.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, July

Drag from trade on Q3 GDP growth likely to be offset elsewhere.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Jobless Claims, August 24

The rising trend has flattened off; expect a run of lower numbers this fall.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, July

 Ignore the headline, the underlying trend is very weak.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

26 August 2024 US Monitor Dovish pivot complete; the Fed now has serious catching-up to do

  • Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech foreshadows a rapid easing of policy in the coming months.
  • Headline durable goods orders likely jumped in July, but the details will be far less impressive.
  • New home sales reportedly surged last month, but are unlikely to keep on climbing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: Existing Home Sales, July

Expect a small rise in H2 sales, but the weakening labor market will constrain activity.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, August

Clearer signs that services sector employment is rolling over.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Jobless Claims, August 17

Underlying claims have plateaued, and will probably slip back in the near term.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, July

 A weather-related plunge in July, but residential construction set for a weak Q3.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, August

Lower mortgage rates came too late for this month's survey.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, July

Consumers keep spending, despite deteriorating fundamentals.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Jobless Claims, August 10

 Weekly data are noisy; the underlying trend is still deteriorating.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US industrial production, July

The underlying trend still looks flat; expect continued stagnation ahead.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US CPI, July

Another month of “good data”, implying a 0.13% core PCE print.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, July

Headline index surges, but the details still point to weakness.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

12 August 2024 US Monitor July core CPI data to leave the door wide open to rapid Fed easing

  • We look for a 0.2% increase in the July core CPI, with the risks tilted towards a lower print.
  • Prices for hotels and air travel likely continued to fall; June’s small rise in rents probably was repeated.
  • Core goods prices likely edged down again, driven by further falls in both new and used vehicle prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

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