US Publications
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Datanotes Weekly Monitor
Further reason to expect a consumer slowdown.
Soft core increase shows domestically-generated inflation in check.
- A record jump in gas prices hugely boosted the CPI in March; expect a further 0.2pp hit in April.
- The core CPI likely will be lifted in April by a rebound in used auto prices and a catch-up increase in rents...
- ...But the fading tariff boost and slowing rent rises will drag down inflation in H2, despite higher oil prices.
Consumption already weak before the energy shock.
Underlying capex still looks relatively weak.
Probably providing a false read on services inflation.
- The rebound in March payrolls was driven by the end of strikes, benign weather and residual seasonality.
- More timely measures of job openings suggest labor demand has weakened since the Iran war began.
- Unemployment dipped as some people looked less actively for work; history points to a swift reversal.
Net trade on track for a big drag on headline GDP growth in Q1.
Core goods inflation unlikely to surge
Stronger sales reflect one-time boosts, underlying trend probably still weak
No sign of the labor market turning a corner.
- March payrolls will rebound after February’s drop, but a sustained strengthening is not in the cards.
- The end of a major strike will add 32K to March jobs, but recent support from mild weather is over.
- Claims data suggest the unemployment rate was stable in March, but the risks are to the upside.
Energy shock adding to the headwinds for growth and employment.
- The 1990 oil shock was key to the ensuing recession; the FOMC eventually eased despite 6% inflation.
- The economy is less oil intensive and firms’ balance sheets are more robust now; a recession is unlikely...
- ...But this FOMC has been very responsive to labor market weakness; we still expect easing by year-end.
Little to cheer for homebuilders.
Underlying manufacturing output still looks anemic.
- January was the fifth straight month of sub-0.3% gains in real consumption; the worst since 2012.
- Oil prices will squeeze real incomes by 11/4% if they are sustained at $100, or 1/2% if they follow futures.
- Households lack the balance sheet strength to brush this aside; spending will grow only modestly.
The underlying trend in core sales still is slowing.
