Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Datanotes Weekly Monitor

US Jobless Claims

Underlying claims rising only slowly for now, but expect a faster deterioration ahead. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Employment Report, July

This week’s Fed inaction was a mistake; the case for 50bp in September is strong. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

5 August 2024 US Monitor Labor market weakening is gathering speed; decisive Fed easing is coming

  • The deep-rooted weakness in July’s labor market data signals that the Fed has waited too long to ease.
  • Increases in the unemployment rate usually gather self-reinforcing momentum once they exceed 0.5pp.
  • We maintain our long-held call for 125bp of Fed easing this year; it’s 50/50 whether they begin with 50bp.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Productivity / Jobless Claims

Meagre growth in unit labor costs supports the case for policy easing.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Chicago PMI & Pending Home Sales

The PMI is probably a poor guide to the national picture.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, July

Confidence improves, but the fundamentals are still shaky.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

29 July 2024 US Monitor Core PCE on track to return to the 2% target by mid-2025

  • June's muted core PCE deflator likely will be followed by sustained benign readings.
  • Consumption will slow further, as the labor market weakens and the savings rate creeps up.
  • July's regional Fed services surveys also support the case for a rapid easing of monetary policy.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

US Durable Goods/Jobless Claims

The underlying trend in equipment investment looks weak, despite the bumper Q2 headline.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, June

Hit to Q2 GDP growth from net trade probably offset by inventories and investment.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

22 July 2024 US Monitor Taylor rules signal faster rate cuts than the Fed and markets expect

  • Interest rate rules monitored by the FOMC suggest rates should already have been reduced to 4%.
  • Policy rules are sensitive to the assumed neutral rate, but also to unemployment, which will rise further.
  • The latest readings for a raft of leading indicators suggest that lower housing inflation is here to stay.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed

Claims boosted by auto plant shutdowns and Hurricane Beryl, but the underlying trend is rising.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US industrial production, June

A strong Q2 for manufacturing, but major headwinds persist.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

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U.S. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,