US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Emerging Asia Chartbook Weekly Monitor
- Liquid assets matter more for spending than total wealth; most households now hold less than usual.
- The top 20% of the income distribution still has ample liquid assets, but threats to their income loom.
- We see a few factors preventing lower rates from providing a big boost to residential construction.
Samuel TombsUS
THE LABOR MARKET WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER...
- ...LOW INFLATION WILL ENABLE A NIMBLE FED RESPONSE
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a near-zero change in October payrolls; Boeing and Milton likely will each subtract about 50K.
- Similar storms have cost more jobs, but we expect a small hit as Milton arrived midway in the survey week.
- Daily Homebase data show only a small blow to employment on Monday and Tuesday, before Milton hit.
Samuel TombsUS
- The scope for another downward revision to payrolls is high, given the low response rate in September.
- The dip in the unemployment rate is statistically insignificant; reliable surveys point to a rising trend.
- A 25bp easing in November remains a good bet, but labor market data will force a faster pace thereafter.
Samuel TombsUS
- The latest batch of data for August have led us to lift our forecast for Q3 GDP growth to 2.5%, from 2.0%.
- Households’ saving rate has been revised up sharply, but the stock of liquid assets still looks low.
- Further labor market weakening will depress income growth and prompt many households to save more.
Samuel TombsUS
- The modest easing planned by the FOMC will be too little, too late, to stabilize the unemployment rate.
- Reductions in the funds rate will lower private sector net interest payments less decisively than in the past.
- Expect a federal funding extension bill to be passed just in time, but bigger squabbles loom next year.
Samuel TombsUS
RESTRICTIVE FED POLICY NO LONGER WARRANTED...
- ...EASING MUST BE RAPID TO STABILIZE THE LABOR MARKET
Samuel TombsUS
- Households have spent all their “excess” savings; liquid assets returned to their long-run trend in Q2.
- Bank deposits are more unevenly distributed than in the 2010s; rising unemployment will lift saving.
- Fed easing will be less stimulative than usual, due to mortgage refinancing during the pandemic.
Samuel TombsUS
- The trend in private payrolls has halved to just 100K in six months; NFIB data signal further slowing.
- The August dip in unemployment was due to a jump in temporary layoffs unwinding; the trend is rising.
- FOMC members Waller and Williams don’t sense the urgency; expect only a 25bp easing this month.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech foreshadows a rapid easing of policy in the coming months.
- Headline durable goods orders likely jumped in July, but the details will be far less impressive.
- New home sales reportedly surged last month, but are unlikely to keep on climbing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- We look for a 0.2% increase in the July core CPI, with the risks tilted towards a lower print.
- Prices for hotels and air travel likely continued to fall; June’s small rise in rents probably was repeated.
- Core goods prices likely edged down again, driven by further falls in both new and used vehicle prices.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The deep-rooted weakness in July’s labor market data signals that the Fed has waited too long to ease.
- Increases in the unemployment rate usually gather self-reinforcing momentum once they exceed 0.5pp.
- We maintain our long-held call for 125bp of Fed easing this year; it’s 50/50 whether they begin with 50bp.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- June's muted core PCE deflator likely will be followed by sustained benign readings.
- Consumption will slow further, as the labor market weakens and the savings rate creeps up.
- July's regional Fed services surveys also support the case for a rapid easing of monetary policy.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Interest rate rules monitored by the FOMC suggest rates should already have been reduced to 4%.
- Policy rules are sensitive to the assumed neutral rate, but also to unemployment, which will rise further.
- The latest readings for a raft of leading indicators suggest that lower housing inflation is here to stay.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
THE SLOWDOWN IS REAL, AND WILL PERSIST…
- …THE FED IS RUNNING THE RISK OF DELAYING TOO LONG
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Stocks will like Fed easing, but will be less enamored of a potentially steep drop in gross margins.
- Existing home sales fell a bit further in May and a sustained recovery looks a long way off.
- The pick-up in the employment index of S&P Global PMI survey in June is probably a red herring.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Fed likely will have to revise up its unemployment forecast in September; the trend is rising.
- Consumers’ confidence fell again in June, despite lower gas prices and a booming stock market.
- The Empire State survey will help to assess the size of the shipping cost shock coming manufacturers’ way.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The initial estimate of a brisk 272K rise in May payrolls likely will be revised down, given many weak indicators.
- The case for firms to hoard staff is weakening as the unemployment rate grinds higher.
- The unwinding of a calendar quirk drove May’s jump in average hourly earnings; the trend still is slowing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The spike in the core PCE deflator is over, but Fed officials will want to see more data before they relax.
- Consumers’ spending is on course for another modest 2%-ish increase in the second quarter.
- Manufacturing is in better shape than implied by the grim Chicago PMI; auto sales headed for Q2 bounce.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US