US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Emerging Asia Chartbook Weekly Monitor
- Meager job gains in July and huge downward revisions leave payrolls looking far weaker than before.
- Private payrolls ex-healthcare fell by 16K per month on average in the three months to July.
- The stable unemployment rate reflects young people deferring active job search; hidden slack is mounting.
- We think headline GDP leapt by around 3% in Q2 overall, but underlying growth was much weaker…
- …Look for a tepid 1½% gain consumers’ spending and a drop of about 2½% in fixed investment…
- …But measurement issues likely meant a huge contribution from net trade was only partly offset elsewhere.
CONSUMERS’ SPENDING IS SLOWING...
- ...WEAKER PAYROLLS IN Q3 WILL EXERT FURTHER PRESSURE
- The jump in June education jobs is more likely to be revised away than to unwind over coming months.
- June education jobs were revised down in 2022, 2023 and 2024; no other data corroborate the 2025 jump.
- A structural break following a mid-2024 methodology change makes the Michigan survey hard to believe.
- The slowdown in consumption this year has been sharpest in areas dominated by higher earners...
- ...Slower asset price gains and expected real wage declines have weighed more than tax hike risk.
- Mortgage applications have risen sharply; people are fed up waiting for mortgage rates to fall.
- June private payrolls ex-education and healthcare rose just 23K; revisions will reveal an even weaker picture.
- Hiring intentions remain depressed; new tax breaks are unlikely to offset tariff costs and uncertainty soon.
- The drop in unemployment looks like noise; payroll growth will undershoot the break-even rate in H2.
