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Emerging Asia Datanotes Chartbook
Sentiment improving, but mortgage rates remain too high for demand to recover materially.
Bouncing back after a poor H1, but Q3’s momentum will not be sustained.
Boeing strike weighs on an already struggling sector.
Helene and strikes obscure the underlying trend.
THE LABOR MARKET WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER...
Consistent with a 0.2% core PCE print; the momentum was in non-PCE components.
Tight credit still weighing heavily on small companies.
Low response rate suggests jump in payrolls very likely to be revised away.
Still consistent with further falls in services inflation.
Boosted marginally by Boeing; expect a further uplift from Hurricane Helene ahead.
Indicators with a better track record paint a much weaker picture.
Still depressed; core goods prices likely to keep falling.
Net trade probably only a small drag on headline growth in Q3.
Underlying equipment investment is still weak, but computers and aircraft are red hot.
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