Cost pressures ease further for services companies
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Core prices back on track; real after-tax income growth slowing sharply
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- February’s subdued core PCE price data support the idea that January’s spike was a one-time fluke.
- Consumption is on track for a 2% gain in Q1, down from 3.3% in Q4, and real income growth is slowing
- A modest uptick in ISM manufacturing is a decent bet, but the sector remains weak.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Further signs of a consumer slowdown.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The March Philly Fed and S&P surveys suggest the manufacturing sector’s downturn is over...
- ...But ongoing inventory rundowns and depressed global demand point to only modest growth ahead.
- New home sales likely rose for a third straight month in February; homebuilders will hang on to market share.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Unlikely to remain as strong as February
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Manufacturers are past the worst, but claims will rise this spring.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Lower rates still supporting for homebuilders
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Still consistent with resilient growth in consumption, for now
Samuel TombsUS
- The shrinking stock of excess savings has exposed most households and small firms to the Fed’s hikes…
- Recent evidence of slowing growth is not yet definitive, but it has our attention.
- Nothing would shift market expectations of faster easing than a clear softening in payrolls; is it coming?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Disappointing enough to make a first easing in May much less likely
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Downward revisions and a muted February recovery signal an emerging consumer slowdown.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US