Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Weekly Monitor Datanotes

PM Datanote: US PPI, August 2024

PPI and CPI data suggest the August core PCE rose by about 0.14%, sustaining the slowdown.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US CPI, August

Don’t panic, it's noise not signal; the core PCE probably rose by about 0.22%.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, August

Punishingly high borrowing costs continuing to weigh on hiring and capex plans.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

9 September 2024 US Monitor Weak job gains require rapid easing, but this Fed is inclined to plod

  • The trend in private payrolls has halved to just 100K in six months; NFIB data signal further slowing.
  • The August dip in unemployment was due to a jump in temporary layoffs unwinding; the trend is rising.
  • FOMC members Waller and Williams don’t sense the urgency; expect only a 25bp easing this month.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Chicago PMI, August

An unreliable bellwether for the national picture.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Personal Income & Spending, July

Undershooting the Fed’s June core PCE forecast for the third straight month.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, July

Housing market activity likely to remain very weak.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, July

Drag from trade on Q3 GDP growth likely to be offset elsewhere.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Jobless Claims, August 24

The rising trend has flattened off; expect a run of lower numbers this fall.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, July

 Ignore the headline, the underlying trend is very weak.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

26 August 2024 US Monitor Dovish pivot complete; the Fed now has serious catching-up to do

  • Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech foreshadows a rapid easing of policy in the coming months.
  • Headline durable goods orders likely jumped in July, but the details will be far less impressive.
  • New home sales reportedly surged last month, but are unlikely to keep on climbing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: Existing Home Sales, July

Expect a small rise in H2 sales, but the weakening labor market will constrain activity.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, August

Clearer signs that services sector employment is rolling over.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Jobless Claims, August 17

Underlying claims have plateaued, and will probably slip back in the near term.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, July

 A weather-related plunge in July, but residential construction set for a weak Q3.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, August

Lower mortgage rates came too late for this month's survey.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

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U.S. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,