PM Datanote: US Advance Economic Indicators, March 2026

Q1 GDP now on track for sub-2% growth.

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, April 2026

Spending growth probably still slowing, labor market still weak.

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, April 2026

Core services inflation unlikely to accelerate sharply.

27 April 2026 US Monitor Higher gas prices will soon hurt more, as flow of tax refunds fades

• Tax refunds have more than offset the hit from higher gas prices, so far, but this support will fade shortly.
• The BEA’s impartiality faces scrutiny this week when it chooses the PCE deflator input for legal services.
• Tariff costs are down and refund applications are now going in; retailers can hold back raising prices.

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, March 2026

Returning to last year’s average; a further recovery looks unlikely.

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, March 2026

Initially resilient, but near-real time data now show gas price pain.

20 April 2026 US Monitor Cooling rent inflation will overwhelm the energy price boost

• Zillow’s measure of new rents increased in April by less than 0.10%, for the fourth straight month.
• The recent further rise in the vacancy rate and pickup in multi-family starts implies the glut will continue.
• Rent’s contribution to core CPI inflation will be 0.3pp lower by year-end, overwhelming the energy hit.

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, March 2026

A mediocre end to Q1, but the surveys look promising.

PM Datanote: US Empire State Manufacturing Survey, April 2026

Early signs of a manufacturing margins squeeze.

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, April 2026

Fallout from the war adding to the pressures on homebuilders.

PM Datanote: US PPI, March 2026

Retailers’ healthy margins suggest tariff pass-though now complete.

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, March 2026

Small business capex plans drop to a post-GFC low.

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, March 2026

Sales going nowhere fast.

PM Datanote: US Michigan Consumer Survey, April 2026

Further reason to expect a consumer slowdown.

PM Datanote: US CPI, March 2026

Soft core increase shows domestically-generated inflation in check.

13 April 2026 US Monitor The fading tariff hit will overwhelm oil's impact on core inflation

• A record jump in gas prices hugely boosted the CPI in March; expect a further 0.2pp hit in April.
• The core CPI likely will be lifted in April by a rebound in used auto prices and a catch-up increase in rents...
• ...But the fading tariff boost and slowing rent rises will drag down inflation in H2, despite higher oil prices.

PM Datanote: US Personal Incomes & Spending, February 2026

Consumption already weak before the energy shock.

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, February 2026

Underlying capex still looks relatively weak.

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, March 2026

Probably providing a false read on services inflation.

6 April 2026 US Monitor The March labor market data look worse beneath the surface

• The rebound in March payrolls was driven by the end of strikes, benign weather and residual seasonality.
• More timely measures of job openings suggest labor demand has weakened since the Iran war began.
• Unemployment dipped as some people looked less actively for work; history points to a swift reversal.