24 August 2025 US Monitor We think a September easing will be the first of many

• Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech flags a September easing, with more cuts likely to follow.
• High long-term Treasury yields reflect policy risks rather than the Fed losing its inflation credibility…
• …We think the Trump administration should step back and let the FOMC do its job.

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI / Existing Home Sales

The rebound in growth implied by the PMI looks too good to be true.

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, August 16, 2025

Labor market slack is gradually building.

PM Datanote: US FOMC Minutes, July 2025

July’s weak employment report means inflation worries look overblown.

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, July 2025

July bounce in starts likely noise; underlying trends remain weak.

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, August 2025

The outlook for homebuilding remains grim. 

PM Datanote: US Producer Prices, July 2025

Price pressures are building, but July's data overstate the intensity.

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, August 9

 Stable but subdued.

18 August 2025 US Monitor Consumption growth is stabilizing, at a sluggish pace

• Growth in consumers’ real spending has stabilized following in sharp slowdown in H1 2025...
• ...But the labor market is set to remain weak, and most of the uplift to prices from tariffs lies ahead.
• We think spending will grow only at a meager 1-to-1½% pace in second half of this year.

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, July 2025

 Collapsing response rate casts doubt, but the backdrop looks weak.

11 August 2025 US Monitor July core CPI likely rose by 0.3%, as the tariffs continued to bleed through

• Adobe and PriceStats data point to a slowing passthrough from the tariffs to consumer prices...
• ...But the ISM services survey sends the opposite signal; we are taking the middle position.
• Demand for air travel seems to be recovering, but hotel room rates likely are sustainably lower.

PM Datanote: US Productivity, Q2 2025

Flattered by GDP distortions in Q2, but the underlying trend still is solid.

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, July 2025

Probably a false alarm on services inflation.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, July 2025

A further climb in goods inflation is still in the pipeline.

PM Datanote: US Employment, July 2025

Revisions reveal a sharp slowdown; September easing incoming.

4 August 2025 US Monitor Dire July employment report makes a September easing far more likely

• Meager job gains in July and huge downward revisions leave payrolls looking far weaker than before.
• Private payrolls ex-healthcare fell by 16K per month on average in the three months to July.
• The stable unemployment rate reflects young people deferring active job search; hidden slack is mounting.

PM Datanote: US Personal Incomes & Spending, June 2025

Core inflation set to climb further as spending barely grows.

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, June

Going nowhere fast.

PM Datanote: US Advance GDP, Q2

Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024.

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, June

Underlying investment looks stagnant at best.