PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, July

Consumers keep spending, despite deteriorating fundamentals.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Jobless Claims, August 10

 Weekly data are noisy; the underlying trend is still deteriorating.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US industrial production, July

The underlying trend still looks flat; expect continued stagnation ahead.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US CPI, July

Another month of “good data”, implying a 0.13% core PCE print.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US PPI, July 2024

Benign enough for the Fed to ease in September.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, July

Headline index surges, but the details still point to weakness.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

12 August 2024 US Monitor July core CPI data to leave the door wide open to rapid Fed easing

• We look for a 0.2% increase in the July core CPI, with the risks tilted towards a lower print.
• Prices for hotels and air travel likely continued to fall; June’s small rise in rents probably was repeated.
• Core goods prices likely edged down again, driven by further falls in both new and used vehicle prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

US Jobless Claims

Underlying claims rising only slowly for now, but expect a faster deterioration ahead. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Employment Report, July

This week’s Fed inaction was a mistake; the case for 50bp in September is strong. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

5 August 2024 US Monitor Labor market weakening is gathering speed; decisive Fed easing is coming

• The deep-rooted weakness in July’s labor market data signals that the Fed has waited too long to ease.
• Increases in the unemployment rate usually gather self-reinforcing momentum once they exceed 0.5pp.
• We maintain our long-held call for 125bp of Fed easing this year; it’s 50/50 whether they begin with 50bp.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing PMI, July

The manufacturing malaise continues.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Productivity / Jobless Claims

Meagre growth in unit labor costs supports the case for policy easing.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Chicago PMI & Pending Home Sales

The PMI is probably a poor guide to the national picture.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Employment Cost Index & ADP Employment Report

Back on track after the Q1 blip.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, July

Confidence improves, but the fundamentals are still shaky.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Personal Income & Spending, June

Core inflation on track to hit the target in mid-2025.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

US Personal Income & Spending, June

Core inflation on track to hit the target in mid-2025.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

29 July 2024 US Monitor Core PCE on track to return to the 2% target by mid-2025

• June's muted core PCE deflator likely will be followed by sustained benign readings.
• Consumption will slow further, as the labor market weakens and the savings rate creeps up.
• July's regional Fed services surveys also support the case for a rapid easing of monetary policy.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

US GDP, Q2

Better than Q1, but likely unsustainable.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

US Durable Goods/Jobless Claims

The underlying trend in equipment investment looks weak, despite the bumper Q2 headline.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US