20 October 2025 US Monitor Is a 50bp easing in December a real possibility?

• Regional banks are under renewed scrutiny, oil prices have tumbled, and the shutdown is going long...
• ...So markets are starting to see a meaningful chance of a 50bp easing in December.
• But timely data imply the labor market and GDP growth are holding up; 25bp is still more likely.

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, September 2025

Rock-bottom response rate casts doubt over reliability.

14 October 2025 US Monitor Near-real time indicators point to slowing consumption

• Consumers’ major purchase intentions have fallen sharply, signalling flat spending on durable goods.
• NRF and Redbook data point to a drop in retail sales in September, ending a strong three-month run.
• Most measures of spending on discretionary services have weakened, consistent with a lackluster Q4.

PM Datanote: US Michigan Sentiment Survey, October 2025

Shutdown hit limited for now, but strong headwinds remain.

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, September 2025

An unreliable guide to growth in services spending.

6 October 2025 US Monitor The Fed will need to be nimbler than usual if the economy founders

• Households have delevered over the last five years and many have fixed-rate mortgages with low rates.
• Reducing the funds rate to 3% next year merely would stabilize the effective mortgage rate.
• The weakness in the ISM surveys in Q3 probably is understating the economy’s underlying momentum.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, September 2025

Manufacturing is going nowhere fast.

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, September 2025

Far from definitive.

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, September 2025

Worsening job availability points to a further rise in the unemployment rate.

PM Datanote: US JOLTS, August 2025

Drops in the openings-to-unemployment ratio and quits signals slower wage growth ahead.

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, August 2025

Lower mortgage rates start to lend a hand.