PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, October 2025

October's strength in control sales looks unlikely to last.

PM Datanote: US Employment, November 2025

Lackluster, but not alarming enough for a January easing.

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, December 2025

Likely a high watermark for now.

PM Datanote: US Empire State Manufacturing Survey, December 2025

Manufacturing capex and hiring likely to remain very weak

15 December 2025 US Monitor November employment report to sustain pressure on the Fed to ease

• We expect a first estimate of a mere 50K rise in November payrolls, despite slightly better surveys...
• ...Retailers have hired relatively few seasonal workers; the upward bias in the first estimate should be mild.
• The unemployment rate likely ticked up to 4.5% in November, from 4.4% in October.

PM Datanote: US Employment Cost Index, Q3 2025

Much weaker wage growth likely lies ahead.

PM Datanote: US Personal Incomes & Spending / Michigan Consumer Survey

Soft September sets for stage for more consumer weakness in Q4.

8 December 2025 US Monitor Consumer resilience is ebbing as year-end approaches

• Spending rose by 2.7% in Q3, but the stagnation in September likely foreshadows a very weak Q4.
• Real incomes are barely rising, and many near-real time indicators point to a sharp slowdown in growth.
• Q1 likely will be weak too, but bumper tax refunds and a pick-up in hiring will support a Q2 revival.

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, September 2025

Going nowhere fast.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, November 2025

Core goods inflation likely to retreat in H1 2026.

1 December 2025 US Monitor Why are tariff revenues falling short of everyone's projections?

• The average effective tariff rate is currently just 12%, far short of the near-20% widely expected in spring.
• China imports have dived; more imports than expected from Canada and Mexico are USMCA-compliant.
• The plunge in the Cass Freight Index looks alarming, but it probably is overstating weakness in industry.