PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, June

Supply-side disruptions giving way to weak demand.

30 June 2025 US Monitor Consumers' spending is rapidly losing momentum

• Spending fell by 0.3% in May, with little chance of a June rebound, and further weakness likely in Q3.
• The 0.4% fall in May incomes was due to one-time factors, but real income growth is set to stagnate.
• The core PCE deflator surprised to the upside in May, but the 0.18% rise will pale in comparison to June.

PM Datanote: US Advance Economic Indicators, May

GDP on course for a misleading jump in Q2.

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales, May

IMay slump brings sales back to reality.

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence / Chair Powell Monetary Policy Testimony

Inflation expectations dropping back, labor market still weakening.

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, May

Sales likely to continue to stagnate.

23 June 2025 US Monitor Consumption looks vulnerable to the looming real-income shock

• Real income growth has already slowed significantly, and will grind to a halt as tariffs boost consumer prices.
• Spending growth likely will soften too; households’ balance sheets are less supportive than post-Covid.
• We expect growth in consumers’ spending to slow just 1% by Q4, down from nearly 3% in Q1.

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, June

Demand still falling amid high mortgage rates and elevated uncertainty.

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, May

Underlying sales volumes holding up...for now.

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, May

Holding on to Q1's gains, for now.

PM Datanote: US Michigan Sentiment Survey, June

 A broken compass.

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, June 7

More to the uptick in claims than residual seasonality.

PM Datanote: US CPI, May

Still waiting for the tariffs to hit.

PM Datanote: US PPI, May

Tariff pressures remain muted, for now.

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, May

Sentiment up from the April lows, but small businesses remain under pressure.

PM Datanote: US JOLTS, April

Rise in openings irreconcilable with other evidence.

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, May

We doubt services inflation will reaccelerate sharply.

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, May

More noise than signal.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, May

Manufacturing remains under pressure.

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, May 24

Cracks starting to show in the labor market.