17 November 2025 US Monitor Inflation outlook insensitive to the Supreme Court's tariff decision

• Retailers usually pass on the bulk of any cost increases to consumers, but bank most of any savings.
• Retailers won’t cut prices only to hike them again if the White House reimposes tariffs via other routes.
• The AI stock sell-off is small so far, but a deeper rout would have a tangible impact on GDP growth.

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, October 2025

 Pointing to a sharp slowdown in wage growth.

PM Datanote: US Michigan Sentiment Survey, November 2025

Reliability questionable, but grim reading nonetheless.

10 November 2025 US Monitor The Michigan confidence survey is disconcerting, despite its flaws

• Comparing November’s UoM survey to its historical range overstates the depth of consumer gloom...
• ...But the massive deterioration in major purchase plans this year is too big to simply brush aside.
• Small businesses are bearing down on wage growth; pay rises of just 3% will be the norm next year.

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, October 2025

Likely sending a false alarm on services inflation.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, October 2025

Tariff-led jump goods inflation likely to be temporary.

3 November 2025 US Monitor Indicators of consumers' spending are starting to flash amber

• Continuing claims have returned to their rising trend; Homebase and Indeed data are also weakening.
• Bloomberg Second Measure and Redbook data point to retail sales losing momentum last month.
• Airline passenger numbers have picked up, but hotel room occupancy is now 2pp lower than a year ago.