Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

29 April 2024 US Monitor Mr. Trump on the Fed's board is an idea whose time should never come

  • A second Trump administration apparently has plans for the Fed; none of them are good; some are wild.
  • The March rise in the core PCE deflator matched expectations; muted increases are coming in Q2.
  • Strong real consumption growth in Q1 was driven partly by a falling saving rate; expect the reverse in Q2.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, March

Housing market activity likely to slow sharply in Q2.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

26 April 2024 US Monitor The Q1 GDP numbers overstate the softening, but the trend is slowing

  • The Q1 data suggest upside risk to our 0.28% March core PCE forecast, but 0.3% rounded still looks likely.
  • Q1 GDP growth was better beneath the hood; the headline was hit by a big foreign trade drag...
  • ...But expect drags in Q2 from inventories and residential investment, as well as slowing consumption growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, March

Rounding off another weak quarter for equipment investment.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

25 April 2024 US Monitor Orders point to weak Q1 equipment investment, but GDP strong again

  • Durable orders were stronger than we expected in March, but they still fell in Q1 as a whole.
  • GDP likely rose by 2.6% in Q1; this week's data have triggered only marginal changes in our forecast.
  • Time lags and generous seasonals mean today's initial claims data likely will be little changed, again. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

24 April 2024 US Monitor Yet another indicator flashing red on payrolls growth

  • S&P's employment index has inaccurately pointed to sharp slowdowns in growth in payrolls before...
  • ...but its grim message should be taken seriously now, given that it is echoed by the NFIB survey.
  • Easter effects point to a downside surprise in durable goods orders ex-transportation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

23 April 2024 US Monitor April PMI data to cast further doubt on resurgent economy story

  • S&P's PMI is too unreliable a guide to GDP to be useful, but its soft inflation signal should be taken seriously.
  • Annual retail sales revisions could have significant implications for consumption growth in Q1.
  • New home sales probably rose in March, capping a strong quarter for residential investment.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

22 April 2024 US Monitor Slowing income growth and a rising saving rate threaten consumption

  • Last year’s strong consumption was due to rapid real income growth; the saving rate rose.
  • Real income growth will be much slower this year, so if the saving rate keeps rising, spending will suffer.
  • Consumption might slow gradually, but in the 2001 business cycle recession, growth lurched down.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Jobless Claims/Philly Fed

Tranquil labor market conditions unlikely to last much longer.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

19 April 2024 US Monitor GDP growth likely nearer 3% than 2% in Q1, an unsustainable pace

  • We think GDP rose at a 2.6% quarter-on-quarter pace in Q1, powered primarily by consumers’ spending. 
  • Data released before the GDP estimate next Thursday, however, could shift our forecast materially.
  • Home sales likely still have further to fall in Q2, despite their big drop in March.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

18 April 2024 US Monitor The LEI is still garbage, but it should be informative again soon

  • Ignore the fall in the LEI in March—Q1 GDP growth will be brisk—but it should become a better guide soon.
  • Look out for an above-consensus rise in jobless claims today as Easter distortions unwind; the trend is rising.
  • February’s surge in existing home sales looks like an anomaly; expect a plunge in March.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: Housing Starts, March 2024

Large fall is likely an Easter timing quirk; the trend still looks flat.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

April 2024 - US Economic Chartbook

LABOR MARKET WARNING SIGNS ARE FLASHING RED…

  • …BUT CHAIR POWELL SEES NO “CRACKS”

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

17 April 2024 US Monitor Chair Powell signals a longer wait, raising the risk of a policy mistake

  • Chair Powell signals that the Fed requires much more data to start easing soon; June odds down again.
  • The widening spread between part-time and full-time job growth is an alarming signal for payrolls.
  • The early Easter hit March housing starts but, in any event, a sustained recovery is some way off.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US NAHB Index, April

Limited inventory of existing homes continues to help homebuilders.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

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