US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Sales likely to continue to stagnate.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- S&P reports brisk employment growth in June, but itsindex has been a very poor guide to payrolls since 2023.
- The output price index signals an implausibly large pick- up in core goods CPI inflation ahead.
- The unwinding of a one-time uplift to Social Security payments probably dragged on income growth in May.
Samuel TombsUS
LEADING LABOR MARKET INDICATORS HAVE WORSENED…
THE FED WILL EASE IN SEP, BEFORE INFLATION PEAKS
Samuel TombsUS
- Real income growth has already slowed significantly, and will grind to a halt as tariffs boost consumer prices.
- Spending growth likely will soften too; households’ balance sheets are less supportive than post-Covid.
- We expect growth in consumers’ spending to slow just 1% by Q4, down from nearly 3% in Q1.
Samuel TombsUS
- Many FOMC participants raised their rate forecasts, but Mr. Powell says “no one... has a lot of conviction”.
- The Committee is overlooking several indicators that point to a material rise in unemployment ahead.
- The slump in single family construction is deepening, another headwind to activity and employment.
Samuel TombsUS
Demand still falling amid high mortgage rates and elevated uncertainty.
Samuel TombsUS
Underlying sales volumes holding up...for now.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Holding on to Q1's gains, for now.
Samuel TombsUS
- The biggest fall in headline retail sales in two years suggests consumers are starting to tire…
- …More weakness is likely in the coming months, as tariff-induced price rises hit in earnest.
- The further rise in import prices ex-tariffs in May indicates tariff costs are being borne entirely in the US.
Samuel TombsUS
A broken compass.
Samuel TombsUS
More to the uptick in claims than residual seasonality.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The median FOMC member this week probably will envisage easing by just 25bp this year...
- ...But the case for expecting more easing remains robust; signs of labor market weakness are growing.
- The $10pb rise in oil prices will lift the CPI by 0.2%, likely dulling Mr. Trump’s appetite for more tariffs.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- We look for a below-consensus drop in May retail sales of about 1%, driven by autos and other durables.
- Spending elsewhere seems to be holding up relatively well for now, but that will change as prices start to rise.
- Real incomes likely will stagnate in Q3; households no longer have the means to fuel strong spending growth.
Samuel TombsUS
Still waiting for the tariffs to hit.
Samuel TombsUS
Tariff pressures remain muted, for now.
Samuel TombsUS
- CPI and PPI data imply a 0.12% rise in the May core PCE deflator, but 0.3-to-0.4% prints lie straight ahead.
- Momentum in services prices will rebuild in June and July, while retailers will start to pass on tariff costs.
- Jobless claims provide further evidence that the labor market is gradually softening.
Samuel TombsUS
Sentiment up from the April lows, but small businesses remain under pressure.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Changes in import prices rarely feed through instantly to consumer prices; brace for a surge this summer.
- CPI services data remain plagued by residual seasonality; expect much faster increases ahead.
- We still expect core CPI inflation to peak at 3½% in Q4, though that won’t stop the Fed easing.
Samuel TombsUS
- The aggregate DPI is a poor guide to CPI core goods prices, but some components are well correlated.
- The useful component DPIs point to no step up yet in the pace of goods price rises in response to tariffs.
- A very low response rate to NFIB’s survey casts doubt over the May rebound in small business confidence.
Samuel TombsUS
- We think the core CPI rose by 0.3% in May, but a 0.2% increase looks more likely than a 0.4%.
- Indicators point to a moderate step up in the pace of core goods price rises; the surge is coming from June.
- Discretionary services prices likely were soft again, while the seasonals will pull down other services prices.
Samuel TombsUS
