US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Swings in home prices have a far bigger dollar-for-dollar wealth effect than movements in stock prices.
- Ongoing weakness in the housing implies a trivial boost to consumption from asset prices in H2 2025.
- Labor-matching efficiency is impeded slightly by high new mortgage rates, but is comparable to the 2010s.
- China’s share of US imports has collapsed to just 7%, from 13%, but looks set to rebound soon.
- Some importers likely have gamed the de minimis exemption, but the loophole will close later this month.
- Services inflation likely will remain contained, despite the further increase in the ISM prices index.
- The average effective tariff rate has risen to 19%, from 16% a month ago; risks tilt towards a further rise.
- Shifting trade flows, margin compression and price rises abroad will temper the boost to consumer prices.
- The DOGE cuts were a small but significant drag on GDP in Q2, and probably will be again in Q3.
A further climb in goods inflation is still in the pipeline.
Revisions reveal a sharp slowdown; September easing incoming.
- Meager job gains in July and huge downward revisions leave payrolls looking far weaker than before.
- Private payrolls ex-healthcare fell by 16K per month on average in the three months to July.
- The stable unemployment rate reflects young people deferring active job search; hidden slack is mounting.
Core inflation set to climb further as spending barely grows.
Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024.
- The meager growth in consumers’ spending in the first half of this year probably will continue in the second.
- Modest gains in nominal incomes will struggle to keep up with the post-tariff jump in consumer prices.
- We see core PCE inflation hitting 3¼% by year-end, but expect the Fed to prioritize the softening labor market.
