US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- GDP rose by 2.3% in Q4, and measures of underlying momentum were even stronger...
- ...But growth is now extremely dependent on consumption, which likely will slow markedly from here.
- Expect a modest 0.8% rise in the Q4 ECI today, and smaller increases over coming quarters.
Samuel TombsUS
Aircraft likely drove a plunge in equipment investment in Q4.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Chair Powell said revisions to the FOMC’s statement were “not meant to send a signal”.
- We’re revising our Q4 GDP growth forecast to 1.5%, from 2.0%, due to weak trade and inventories data.
- Federal government payrolls could easily drop by between 100K and 200K by October.
Samuel TombsUS
- We think GDP rose by around 2% in Q4, driven mainly by another strong increase in consumption.
- Tariffs muddy the waters, but we expect growth to be much weaker this year than in 2024.
- The FOMC is unlikely to signal less easing after only one month’s better than expected labor market data.
Samuel TombsUS
New home sales likely to tread water at best.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- People are using credit, despite its high cost, to bring forward big-ticket purchases to avoid tariffs.
- Credit cards supported spending growth by 0.2pp in Q4; expect a similar boost in Q1, then a hefty drag.
- Business investment probably will continue to stagnate over the next few quarters.
Samuel TombsUS
Q4 leap in home sales in unlikely to last.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Business confidence is net unchanged since before the election, while consumers are more downbeat.
- PMI data signal strong growth in January payrolls, but other indicators point to renewed weakness.
- We doubt Mr Trump can engineer a both boom in oil output and much lower rates in the short term.
Samuel TombsUS
RISING UNEMPLOYMENT TO SPUR FURTHER FED EASING…
- …INFLATION WILL STILL FALL UNDER MOST TARIFF SCENARIOS
Samuel TombsUS
- Ignore the Q4 plunge in the BLS new tenant rent index; it is usually revised up sharply...
- …CPI housing inflation still looks set to slow this year, contributing to a fall in overall core inflation.
- California wildfires lifted initial claims last week, but the pick-up in continuing claims has deeper roots.
Samuel TombsUS
- The federal hiring freeze likely will reduce monthly payroll growth by about 15K from February to April.
- Federal jobs account for just 2% of total payrolls, making a very big drag on the headline unlikely.
- Measures of economic policy uncertainty have shot up; that’s usually a bad sign for payroll growth too.
Samuel TombsUS
- The tariff outlook is uncertain, but core PCE inflation probably will be lower at the end of 2025 than now.
- The upward impact on prices likely will be mitigated by a diversion in trade flows, among other factors.
- Beware forecasts for January payrolls derived from Homebase data, which are extremely seasonal.
Samuel TombsUS
Manufacturing still looks fragile despite this improvement.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Tariffs are inflationary, despite claims to the contrary, and we see other upside risks during Trump 2.0…
- …But a repeat of the runaway inflation seen in the latter half of the 1970s seems very unlikely.
- The Fed provides a far more effective backstop against sustained inflation now than it did back then.
Samuel TombsUS
Spending still very strong, but likely to soften.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Disinflation still progressing; core PCE deflator likely up just 0.2%.
Samuel TombsUS
- Retail sales were solid in December, and consumers’ real spending likely rose by about 3.5% in Q4.
- Some temporary factors, however, probably are supporting sales; we expect a mid-year lull in spending.
- Governor Waller still envisages easing policy further in H1; we think rising layoffs will spur action in March.
Samuel TombsUS
Massive rise in airline fares leaves core PCE deflator set to rise by 0.3%.
Samuel TombsUS
Politics still making the NFIB harder to read.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
