US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Economy robust in the face of tariff uncertainty for now.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Still impeded by high mortgage rates and elevated uncertainty.
Samuel TombsUS
Little changed from previous weeks, but weak hiring indicators point to a deterioration soon.
Samuel TombsUS
STAGNATION AHEAD, AS THE TARIFFS HIT REAL INCOMES…
- …THE FED WILL START EASING IN Q3 AS PAYROLL GAINS SLOW
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The S&P composite PMI suggests underlying GDP growth is tracking around 2% for now...
- ...but the survey also points to much higher core goods inflation and pressures on services firms too.
- Markets rightly judge that the “Big Beautiful Bill” will boost debt issuance but do little to lift demand.
Samuel TombsUS
- The marked weakness in airline passenger numbers partly reflects a dive in inbound tourism.
- Most other near-real time indicators of consumers’ spending remain relatively resilient.
- Existing home sales probably remained depressed in April; a meaningful recovery still is some way off.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Homebase data signal a 150K rise in May private payrolls, matching the average of the last three months...
- ...But its skew towards hospitality means it is a poor overall indicator; others have a better track record.
- Major consumer confidence surveys have diverged markedly; we suspect political bias is the problem.
Samuel TombsUS
- The reconciliation bill implies a 1.8% boost to the deficit, relative to the baseline of a small fiscal tightening.
- But more pay-fors likely will be added in order to pass Congress, and tariffs will offset most of the boost.
- Temporary and short-term jobs are holding up well, providing some reassurance about employment.
Samuel TombsUS
Extremely low response rate and partisan divide raise questions over reliability.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Pointing to a sharp fall in new home sales & residential construction.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Recent resilience unlikely to last beyond the summer.
Samuel TombsUS
Pointing to a mere 0.12% rise in the core PCE deflator, and margin pressure for distributors.
Samuel TombsUS
Further weakness probably lies in store.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- April import price data damage the theory that overseas manufacturers will absorb some tariff costs.
- PPI trade services prices—gross margins—usually are revised up; retailers are planning June price hikes.
- Residential construction payrolls are vulnerable to a drop in housing starts; the market is oversupplied.
Samuel TombsUS
Tariff shock puts small business under further pressure.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Retail sales held up relatively well in April, clinging on to nearly all their solid gains in March.
- But sales volumes are likely to falter soon, as the wave of pre-tariff purchases unwinds in earnest.
- A more substantial pass-through from tariffs to retail prices probably will soon weigh on sales volumes too.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The current menu of tariffs would lift the core PCE deflator by about 1pp, mostly over the next year.
- But uncertainties persist over the speed and extent of pass-through, and the tariff rates themselves.
- Ending exemptions and applying the threatened reciprocal tariffs could push core inflation as high as 4%.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The April CPI report contained early signs of tariffs pushing up goods prices, with much more to come…
- …But services inflation remains relatively muted, and we think further declines are in the pipeline.
- The April NFIB survey points to much weaker capex spending and relatively subdued services inflation.
Samuel TombsUS
- The inflation outlook is little changed by the China “deal”; less trade will be rerouted via lower tariff nations.
- The export outlook, however, is brighter, so we are lifting our 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1½%, from 1¼%.
- We look for unchanged April retail sales, but 0.5% gains in both sales ex-autos and the control measure.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Mismeasurement likely distorting the Q1 numbers; underlying trend solid.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
