US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- Headline retail sales were probably held back by a plunge in auto sales linked to supply-bottlenecks...
- ...but underlying sales likely were strong again, as tariff threats encouraged pre-emptive purchases.
- Mr. Powell's Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony was unremarkable, but watch for post-CPI comments today.
Samuel TombsUS
- Manufacturers have hiked prices to game pre-tariff demand, but prices for autos and clothing likely fell.
- Revisions to the seasonals should temper the residual seasonality in the services price data.
- New tariffs on steel and aluminum will have minimal impact on overall inflation.
Samuel TombsUS
Tariffs worries continue to weigh on confidence.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Positive near-term revisions offset the subpar January print; a March easing is off the table.
Samuel TombsUS
- The recent upward inflexion in payroll growth likely will be tempered by revisions...
- ...But January’s numbers likely were depressed by bad weather; expect a better print in February.
- A mid-year slowing in payroll growth still looks likely, but we now look for the FOMC’s next easing in June
Samuel TombsUS
Cost pressures from the labor market remain relatively benign.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Trend still low for now; leading indicators paint a mixed picture.
Samuel TombsUS
Underlying services inflation still likely to decline.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Underlying services inflation still likely to decline.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Poor track record suggests ADP’s resilient picture should be disregarded.
Samuel TombsUS
- Output per hour rose an impressive 2.3% in 2024; surveys point to higher IT spending by firms in 2025.
- AI spending, however, poses near-term downside risks to employment and more disinflation pressure.
- Mixed signals on federal spending so far, but DOGE likely will drag slightly on demand and employment.
Samuel TombsUS
Labor demand still deteriorating, amid tight monetary policy and elevated uncertainty.
Samuel TombsUS
- March 2024 payrolls likely will be revised down by about 670K after benchmarking to UI records...
- ...The birth-death model’s contribution to payroll growth since then probably will be revised down too.
- We see some evidence of tariff “front-running” in December trade data; expect a lot more to come.
Samuel TombsUS
- Job openings are still trending down; catch-up growth in healthcare hiring is fizzling out.
- JOLTS net hiring in December was more muted than payroll growth; January jobs will probably disappoint.
- Auto sales likely were hit by bad weather in January: pre-tariff purchases probably have further left to run.
Samuel TombsUS
Pre-tariff upturn probably will be fleeting.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- We look for a 125K increase in January payrolls, well below the 170K consensus.
- Survey indicators present an incoherent picture, but unusually cold weather likely hit employment.
- The small fall in continuing claims points to a stable unemployment rate, but the risks are to the upside.
Samuel TombsUS
A sub-4% saving rate is unsustainable.
Samuel TombsUS
A sub-4% saving rate is unsustainable.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
The case for softer services inflation remains intact.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The tariffs imposed by Mr. Trump will lift consumer prices by 0.6%, if they are maintained.
- Recent strong growth in consumption can be largely attributed to preemptive purchases of imports.
- A sub-4% saving rate is unsustainable; expect sub-2% GDP growth soon, as consumption growth slows.
Samuel TombsUS
