US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Boosted partly by temporary supply chain disruption; core services inflation is still falling.
Samuel TombsUS
- Labor market data are weak enough for the FOMC to ease by another 25bp today...
- ...But tariffs likely will keep core PCE inflation above 2%, so we now look for more gradual easing in 2025.
- Much of Mr. Trump’s agenda, however, will depress GDP growth, keeping the terminal rate low.
Samuel TombsUS
- Donald Trump’s migration plans would hit growth in GDP and employment and likely push up inflation...
- ...But his campaign’s most extreme proposals for mass deportations seem unlikely to materialize.
- Ending election spending will depress consumption growth this winter, but leave jobs largely unaffected.
Samuel TombsUS
- We think that a 10pp jump in the effective tariff rate would boost the core PCE deflator by about 0.8pp.
- The experience of past tariffs suggests exporters will maintain prices and retailers absorb little of the cost.
- Inflation expectations are above target-consistent levels; the Fed can’t ignore the tariffs this time.
Samuel TombsUS
Weakness in the sector extends well beyond Boeing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Subdued core PCE inflation and slowing ECI growth green light further material Fed easing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Hit to payrolls from Milton likely was limited.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Probably not the start of a strong recovery.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Solid growth unlikely to prevent a November easing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
No reason to change payroll forecasts, given ADP's poor record
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The latest claims data suggest the hit to NFP from Hurricanes Helene and Milton was relatively small.
- September’s hefty rise in the core PCE deflator will be a blip; October’s storm-related boost will be small.
- Job market loosening points to lower core inflation in 2025, but Mr. Trump’s tariffs would upend that story.
Samuel TombsUS
- Both the job postings-to-unemployment ratio and the quits rate are now well below pre-Covid levels.
- ADP’s data has a poor record of capturing the hit to private payrolls from hurricanes.
- September’s jump in the trade deficit was due to inventory accumulation; Q3 GDP growth will be strong.
Samuel TombsUS
Pick-up probably election-related; spending growth unlikely to keep strengthening.
Samuel TombsUS
Larger deficit driven by stockpiling in preparation for the port strikes.
Samuel TombsUS
- Strong growth in consumption drove another solid expansion in headline GDP in Q3.
- But household are running out of steam, and the cracks are starting to show in investment spending.
- Claims today are unlikely to tell us much about Milton’s likely impact on the October jobs report.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- We think GDP grew by 3.5% in Q3, underpinned by another solid increase in consumers’ spending.
- But growth probably will slow sharply over the next few quarters, as households start to tire.
- The core PCE deflator likely rose by just 2.0%, and underlying inflation is set to remain in check.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Underlying investment demand is still weak.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- We look for a 100K rise in October non-farm payrolls; surveys show the trend in private payrolls is slowing.
- Strikes likely cut payrolls by about 40K; the hit from Hurricane Milton is less certain, but 25K is plausible.
- Homebase data show employment in Florida was lower than usual throughout the week.
Samuel TombsUS
Probably a high watermark for new home sales.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Boost from Milton underwhelms, while claims elsewhere drop back.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
