US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Don't panic about the prices index just yet.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Falling quits point to a further slowdown in wage growth ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Profits are very sensitive to GDP growth, and reliably lead employment growth at turning points.
- Much weaker growth in profits would suggest trouble ahead for the broader economy.
- Seasonals are pushing down claims; they also fell in the first week of prior years with identical calendars.
Samuel TombsUS
- JOLTS job postings are noisy and usually revised down; Indeed’s data are a better guide to the trend.
- Muted overall net hiring, and net job losses among very small firms, suggest Fed policy is still too tight.
- Fade the jump in the ISM services prices index; it is far more volatile than underlying services inflation.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a lethargic 150K in December payrolls, with private jobs increasing by just 120K...
- ...NFIB hiring intentions and Indeed job postings—the only survey indicators worth tracking—are weak.
- Mild weather likely lifted December construction payrolls, but the boost won’t last.
Samuel TombsUS
Early signs of improvement, but still depressed.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Manufacturing payrolls have been falling for several months, and construction looks vulnerable too.
- Job losses in these sectors have often signaled trouble for the broader labor market and economy.
- We think the economy is in a more fragile position than markets and the commentariat appreciate.
Samuel TombsUS
- The end of year declines in both initial and continuing claims are due to seasonal adjustment problems.
- The recent pick-up in WARN layoff filings suggests initial claims will rise over the coming months.
- Unemployment likely rose again last month, despite lower claims, driven by rising long-term joblessness.
Samuel TombsUS
- We have revised down our forecast for Q4 GDP growth to 2%, from 2.5% previously.
- Recent data point to a huge slump in investment in aircraft, and a significant drag from net foreign trade.
- Attempts to get ahead of threatened tariffs probably will distort the GDP data in the early part of 2025.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
The post-election pick-up in sentiment has faded quickly.
Samuel TombsUS
Shipments point to unchanged equipment investment in Q4.
Samuel TombsUS
Expect further mild core PCE increases in the near term.
Samuel TombsUS
- Big increases in purchases of high-value durable goods largely drove November's brisk consumption.
- Real after-tax income growth will slow next year amid modest wage rises and falling savings income.
- Spending growth will lull in mid-2025 even without tariffs, as people are acting now like they are coming.
Samuel TombsUS
This uptick in home sales will prove temporary.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- We look for a 0.13% increase in the November core PCE deflator, easing fears about sticky inflation.
- The unemployment rate probably still rose in December, despite the slight fall in continuing claims.
- The recent upturn in home sales is unlikely to last now that mortgage rates are rising again.
Samuel TombsUS
Multi-family volatility obscures the weak big picture.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Most FOMC members envisage easing by just 50bp in 2025, but rising unemployment will spur more.
- WARN and Challenger data point to a renewed rise in jobless claims and an above-consensus print today.
- A rare rise in the Leading Economic Index in November will grab attention today, but it should be ignored.
Samuel TombsUS
- November's retail sales suggest real consumption is on track to rise by a solid 3% or so in Q4...
- ...But income growth is slowing and favorable wealth effects on spending will fade in 2025.
- Expect a downturn in residential construction, now that the pipeline of new projects is drying up.
Samuel TombsUS
Homebuilders seem too optimistic about the outlook.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Stagnation will remain the story in 2025.
Samuel TombsUS
