Pantheon Macroeconomics
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Gold trade and pre-tariff stockpiling are distorting the numbers.
Equipment investment likely to remain anemic at best.
Net trade set to drag heavily on growth amid a pre-tariff surge in imports.
Stronger growth in underlying orders unlikely to last much longer.
Net trade and inventories likely dragged heavily on Q4 GDP growth.
Aircraft likely drove a plunge in equipment investment in Q4.
Shipments point to unchanged equipment investment in Q4.
Import stockpiling likely to resume; equipment investment probably weak again in Q4.
Larger deficit driven by stockpiling in preparation for the port strikes.
U.S. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,