Pantheon Macroeconomics
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Large fall is likely an Easter timing quirk; the trend still looks flat.
One spike in the core deflator after three very small increases does not change the trend.
Core inflation falling steadily across all three components.
Starts data are noisy, but a modest housing recovery is underway.
Sequentual core inflation is now almost at target pace.
Probably an overshoot, but a steady increase in single-family starts lies ahead.
Core inflation is falling; spending is softening.
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