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Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Pick-up in continuing claims consistent with a further slowing in hiring.
The softening in the labor market remains very gradual.
Weak October payrolls were only partly due to strikes and storms.
Subdued core PCE inflation and slowing ECI growth green light further material Fed easing.
Hit to payrolls from Milton likely was limited.
No reason to change payroll forecasts, given ADP's poor record
Boost from Milton underwhelms, while claims elsewhere drop back.
Helene and strikes obscure the underlying trend.
Boosted marginally by Boeing; expect a further uplift from Hurricane Helene ahead.
Indicators with a better track record paint a much weaker picture.
Undershooting the Fed’s June core PCE forecast for the third straight month.
The rising trend has flattened off; expect a run of lower numbers this fall.
Clearer signs that services sector employment is rolling over.
Underlying claims have plateaued, and will probably slip back in the near term.
Weekly data are noisy; the underlying trend is still deteriorating.
Underlying claims rising only slowly for now, but expect a faster deterioration ahead.
Meagre growth in unit labor costs supports the case for policy easing.
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