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31st Jul 2024 09:34USDaily Monitor

  • Homebase data are less useful than usual in July, but business surveys point to sluggish growth in payrolls. 
  • We see an even chance of the Sahm rule being triggered and expect a below-trend 0.2% increase in AHE.
  • Growth in unit labor costs has slowed to well below 2%, pointing to further falls in core inflation ahead.  

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Keywords for: 2 August 2024 US Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence