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1st Aug 2024 19:19USWeekly Monitor

  • The deep-rooted weakness in July’s labor market data signals that the Fed has waited too long to ease.
  • Increases in the unemployment rate usually gather self-reinforcing momentum once they exceed 0.5pp.
  • We maintain our long-held call for 125bp of Fed easing this year; it’s 50/50 whether they begin with 50bp.

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Keywords for: 5 August 2024 US Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence