In one line: Was the rise in French private sector activity short-lived?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Was the rise in French private sector activity short-lived?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Services leads the way while industry downturn is easing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Services leads the way while industry downturn is easing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Goods trade supported GDP last quarter
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ goods trade surplus widened in March, and net trade in goods likely boosted GDP in Q1.
- Advance data from China as well as surveys suggest this boost is disappearing in Q2...
- ...And we think rising imports means net trade is set to weigh on growth for the rest of the year.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Were it not for the superbonus, Italian investment likely would be falling off a cliff...
- ...Interest rates faced by firms are among the high- est, credit standards tight and loan demand sinking.
- The lagged hit from rising interest rates on Eurozone investment will fade later this year, but only slowly.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Output still fell over Q1 as a whole.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Well below consensus, will Q1 GDP be revised down?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Food inflation has declined steadily since peaking at 15.5% last year but now seems to be stabilising.
- Surveys suggest it will hold steady just below 3% for now, but falling food PPI points to further downside.
- Catalonia’s election will most likely lead to a PSC-led coalition government; Sanchez will be happy.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Weak, but output still rose in Q1 overall.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: German industry came out of recession in Q1, will it last?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ industry was a drag on GDP growth in Q1, despite German industry coming out of recession.
- February data confirm services led the rebound in EZ GDP in Q1 and will stay in the driving seat for now.
- The boost from construction appears to be reversing already, and the fall in the PMI in April bodes ill.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Retail sales still went nowhere in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Deficit narrows again, to three-year low.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Orders not rising in line with surveys; trade balance in goods rebounds
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German factory orders fell again in March, as capital and intermediate goods demand faltered...
- ...Turnover data suggest production figures will be better than expected today, but still down.
- Retail sales confirm the EZ consumer was still show- ing little interest in goods in Q1; will this change?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ unemployment rate held steady in March, staying at 6.5% for the fourth straight month.
- Employment growth likely slowed in Q1, in line with the surveys and advance national data...
- ...And will slow to Q3 at least, lifting the jobless rate as labour-force growth stays strong.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone