Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, April & Industrial Production, EZ, February 2025

In one line: Tariffs hit investor sentiment hard; industrial production will feel the tariff burn but not until later in the year probably. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB BLS, EZ, Q1 2025

In one line: Banks tighten lending standards for firms & demand for credit eases again even before the shock of “Liberation Day". 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor BLS shows EZ banks hesitating even before tariff hikes

  • Banks tightened lending standards less in Q1 than in Q4, but were already worried about tariffs in March… 
  • ...They expect to tighten lending standards further, while demand for loans among firms fell. 
  • We revise up our Swiss GDP forecasts, on the back of the 90-day pause to tariff hikes.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor Stuck between the US and China, the EU's next move is crucial

  • Re-routing could lead to a bigger EZ trade surplus with the US, increasing the risk of higher US tariffs… 
  • ...One of the ways to stem the flow would be for the EU to hike its tariffs on China; it prefers not to. 
  • The EU is at great risk of being pulled into the US-Sino trade war, whether it wants to or not.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor Changing our SNB call, but we still don't expect negative rates

  • Slower growth, coupled with a stronger CHF and lower oil prices, will keep Swiss inflation down. 
  • The SNB is likely to cut once more; we now expect the easing cycle to end in June. 
  • EZ house prices rose 4.2% last year and will increase again this year, as lower interest rates fuel demand.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, EZ, February 2025

In one line: Rebounding as expected; will global trade war hurt consumers? 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor Markets, and baseline forecasts, are on the ropes from US tariffs

  • The markets’ verdict is clear; trade uncertainty is a disinflationary shock, but we’re not convinced.
  • We now think the ECB will cut its policy rate later this month, by 25bp, for a terminal rate of 2.25%.
  • A high export ratio for EZ industry means higher US tariffs are a risk; construction is looking better.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, March 2025

In one line: Holding at a 46-month low, but will rise again soon; Swiss retaliation to US tariff hikes poses an upside risk.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, March 2025

In one line: Holding at a 46-month low, but will rise again soon; Swiss retaliation to US tariff hikes poses an upside risk.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, February 2025

In one line:  A new record low; another data point for ECB hawks. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: PMI, Switzerland, March 2025

In one line: Our PM composite PMI points to another solid increase in GDP in Q1.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations, EZ, February & Unemployment, Germany, March

In one line: EZ inflation expectations hold steady; further increases in German unemployment are on the way.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France/Spain, Mar & INSEE Consumers' Spending, France, Feb

In one line:  Inflation in France and Spain came in below expectations; another setback in French spending. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, February 2025

In one line: Money and credit data still positive on outlook for EZ economy. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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