Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, EZ, December 2024

In one line: Retail sales still rose in Q4, and further increases are likely. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Construction PMIs, Eurozone, January 2025

In one line: Still pointing to underlying weakness in construction. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 February 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ house prices set to rise further this year, supporting spending

  • House prices rose by around 3.5% in 2024, much stronger than we were anticipating… 
  • …A recovery in demand and still-subdued supply point to a further pick-up, supporting consumption. 
  • German industry ended 2024 on a better note than we expected, according to advance turnover data.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 February 2025 Eurozone Monitor GDP in Switzerland rose in Q4, unlike in Germany and the EZ

  • Swiss GDP likely rose by 0.9% in 2024, much better than the 0.2% decline in neighbouring Germany. 
  • The US has not said it will raise tariffs on Swiss imports, but an EU-US trade tiff will still hurt slightly. 
  • We continue to think the SNB easing cycle will end in March, though risks are tilted towards further easing.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: PMIs, Switzerland, January 2025

In one line: Likely underestimating Swiss GDP growth still, and pointing to weaker inflation.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 January 2025 Eurozone Monitor Spain's economy still on a tear; Italy makes a good start to 2025

  • Spanish GDP rose by 0.8% q/q in Q4, and by 3.2% over 2024 as a whole, beating expectations. 
  • Growth will likely slow this year but remain stellar, such that Spain outperforms the big three, again. 
  • The IESI suggests Italian GDP growth will remain decent in Q1, after likely rebounding in Q4.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB BLS, EZ, Q4 2024

In one line: Political uncertain forces banks to tighten lending standards again. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 January 2025 Eurozone Monitor Tight European gas market and geopolitics risk higher inflation

  • High gas prices and low inventories in the EU risk higher Eurozone inflation in Q2 and Q3. 
  • Russian gas imports will likely dwindle further; the US, Norway and Qatar can cover some of the gap…
  • ...But at what price? And what will happen if Chinese or domestic US demand ramps up?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: IFO BCI, Germany, January 2025

In one line: Up marginally, supporting our view of a modest rebound in Q1.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, January 2025

In one line: Up, supporting our call for faster GDP growth in early 2025, but not enough to deter an ECB rate cut next week. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, January 2025

In one line: Up, supporting our call for faster GDP growth in early 2025, but not enough to deter an ECB rate cut next week.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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