- The EZ hourly labour cost growth data were the final wage indicators to be published for Q1…
- ...The data confirm wage growth picked up in Q1, but mainly due to one-offs in Germany.
- Wage growth will slow in due course, but a July rate cut is off the table; September is not certain either.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Imports look to be on the rise again.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Headline points to weakness but the details are more positive
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Italy’s economy had a decent Q1 and will continue to grow this year...
- ...But a correction in investment remains on the cards and is now likely to come as soon as Q2.
- We forecast GDP growth of 1% in 2024, as in 2023, before 1.8% next year; risks remain to the downside
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Was the rise in French private sector activity short-lived?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Was the rise in French private sector activity short-lived?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Services leads the way while industry downturn is easing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Services leads the way while industry downturn is easing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Goods trade supported GDP last quarter
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ goods trade surplus widened in March, and net trade in goods likely boosted GDP in Q1.
- Advance data from China as well as surveys suggest this boost is disappearing in Q2...
- ...And we think rising imports means net trade is set to weigh on growth for the rest of the year.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Were it not for the superbonus, Italian investment likely would be falling off a cliff...
- ...Interest rates faced by firms are among the high- est, credit standards tight and loan demand sinking.
- The lagged hit from rising interest rates on Eurozone investment will fade later this year, but only slowly.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Output still fell over Q1 as a whole.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Well below consensus, will Q1 GDP be revised down?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Food inflation has declined steadily since peaking at 15.5% last year but now seems to be stabilising.
- Surveys suggest it will hold steady just below 3% for now, but falling food PPI points to further downside.
- Catalonia’s election will most likely lead to a PSC-led coalition government; Sanchez will be happy.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Weak, but output still rose in Q1 overall.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: German industry came out of recession in Q1, will it last?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone