Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Italy, Q3 2024 & Unemployment, EZ, Oct 2024

In one line: Consumers came to the rescue for Italy in Q3; Still no dovishness in EZ labour market data.  

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, November 2024

In one line: Rising enough to prevent a 50bp cut in December, we think. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, November 2024

In one line: Rising enough to prevent a 50bp cut in December, we think. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GDP, Switzerland, Q3 2024

In one line: Switzerland will still outperform the EZ this year, despite slower growth in Q3.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: EC Sentiment, Eurozone, November 2024

In one line: Headline oddly stable; consumer inflation expectations surge.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GfK/NIM Consumer Confidence, Germany, December 2024

In one line: Politics rattle German consumers; we doubt falling sentiment will be reflected in spending figures. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 November 2024 Eurozone Monitor How could the EU retaliate against tariffs from the US?

  • The EU would target manufactured goods such as machinery or aircraft if it retaliates with higher tariffs. 
  • In that case, Germany would be among the EZ economies facing higher inflation pressure… 
  • ...EZ imports likely would decline, lifting GDP growth, but the boost would be marginal overall.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, September 2024

In one line: Construction was back recession in Q3; it will remain there in Q4. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Eurozone, September 2024

In one line: Goods surplus rebounded in September; net trade was still a drag on growth in Q3. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 November 2024 Eurozone Monitor GDP and employment data imply little need for faster ECB cuts

  • EZ GDP and employment beat forecasts in Q3; we expect both to ease in Q4…
  • ...But neither will slow enough to convince the ECB to ramp up the pace of easing. 
  • EZ industry remains in a rut and will again be a drag on growth in Q4, even if US firms front-load orders.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 November 2024 Eurozone Monitor Is EZ food inflation becoming entrenched? It looks like it

  • EZ food inflation has been edging up in recent months, mostly due to base effects. 
  • Factory-gate prices suggest it will continue to rise though; the 2022-to-23 shock will persist in the data.
  • Higher food inflation will keep the headline elevated, supporting our call for higher ECB rates for longer.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence