Output lacking momentum, but goods inflation still very much in check.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Overdue crash in oil imports masks a further—welcome—rise in non-oil imports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Our Homebase model points to a 200K rise in private payrolls, but its errors in prior Julys have been big...
- ...So we will place more weight this time on the NFIB, S&P Global, ISM and regional Fed business surveys.
- Headline retail sales probably fell in June, due to a slump in sales of autos and gasoline.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s economy continues to show resilience in Q2, supported by a strong labour market.
- The outlook for H2 is positive, despite challenges, but tight financial conditions will hurt in 2025.
- Argentina’s inflation continues to undershoot, bolstering confidence in Milei’s stabilisation plan.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Two-way goods trade in Indonesia rebounded robustly in Q2, mainly thanks to EM demand…
- …But the tourism recovery is still waning; expect a 0.9pp net trade lift to GDP, up from -0.2pp in Q1.
- Food price pressures in India are building again, forcing us to raise our 2024 and 2025 CPI outlook.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The ECB will likely open the door to further easing this week, teeing up a second rate cut, in September.
- Market expectations are converging on three cuts between now and March; the ECB is fine with this.
- One week ahead of the EZ Q2 GDP data, Nowcast models are subdued; we don’t buy them.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill’s speech last week signals the first rate cut is mostly data-independent.
- The hawks are shifting to argue for only gradual cuts, so back-to-back reductions will face stiff resistance.
- Mr. Pill suggested interest rates may need to remain persistently restrictive to keep inflation at the target.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: EZ industry likely came out of recession in Q2, by the skin of its teeth.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Likely the peak for 2024, barring any fresh shocks.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Chinese GDP misses expectations, hit by dull retail sales, despite resilient industrial output
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Slip in export growth should be short-lived.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
June slip in Indonesian export growth should be short-lived
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Vegetable prices are rearing their ugly head, again; industry is back to a two-track growth, this time with consumer durables racing ahead.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Vegetable prices are rearing their ugly head, again; industry is back to a two-track growth, this time with consumer durables racing ahead.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Money growth is buffeted by corporate deposit outflows
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: China saw record trade surplus since 1992 on deteriorating import demand and steady export recovery
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Core is settled around 2%; headline should fall further from August onwards.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: China saw record trade surplus since 1992 on deteriorating import demand and steady export recovery
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
