Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, September 2024

In one line: Construction was back recession in Q3; it will remain there in Q4. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Eurozone, September 2024

In one line: Goods surplus rebounded in September; net trade was still a drag on growth in Q3. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 November 2024 Eurozone Monitor GDP and employment data imply little need for faster ECB cuts

  • EZ GDP and employment beat forecasts in Q3; we expect both to ease in Q4…
  • ...But neither will slow enough to convince the ECB to ramp up the pace of easing. 
  • EZ industry remains in a rut and will again be a drag on growth in Q4, even if US firms front-load orders.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 November 2024 Eurozone Monitor Is EZ food inflation becoming entrenched? It looks like it

  • EZ food inflation has been edging up in recent months, mostly due to base effects. 
  • Factory-gate prices suggest it will continue to rise though; the 2022-to-23 shock will persist in the data.
  • Higher food inflation will keep the headline elevated, supporting our call for higher ECB rates for longer.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, September 2024

In one line: Still in recession; Q3 saw the sixth straight quarterly fall in output.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, EZ, September 2024

In one line: German data included, EZ retail story rosier than previously thought

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, October 2024

In one line: PMI-suggested stagnation unlikely but Trump win bodes ill for already-weak demand for manufactured goods.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 November 2024 Eurozone Monitor Further floods risk a bigger slowdown in Spanish growth in Q4

  • Floods mean the risk to our call for Spanish GDP to ease slightly in Q4, to 0.6%, is for a bigger slowdown. 
  • It would take a significant hit to GDP for Spain to underperform the rest of the big four though. 
  • French industry rose over Q3, despite the fall in September; it is unlikely to increase again in Q4.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, November 2024

In one line: Decent GDP data support investor sentiment but it remains subdued. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, October 2024

In one line: Little to suggest the rut in industry is ending, despite increase.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, October 2024

In one line: Little to suggest the rut in industry is ending, despite increase.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, October 2024

In one line: Downside surprise, SNB will have to ease more than we previously thought.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, October 2024

In one line: Downside surprise, SNB will have to ease more than we previously thought.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, EZ, Q3 2024 & ESI, EZ, October 2024

In one line: Little in the GDP data to support an accelerated ECB easing cycle. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Italy, Q3 2024

In one line:  Disappointing; was the hit from construction investment bigger than we thought? 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence