Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)

Global Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, March 2025

In one line: Holding at a 46-month low, but will rise again soon; Swiss retaliation to US tariff hikes poses an upside risk.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, March 2025

In one line: Holding at a 46-month low, but will rise again soon; Swiss retaliation to US tariff hikes poses an upside risk.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, February 2025

In one line:  A new record low; another data point for ECB hawks. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: PMI, Switzerland, March 2025

In one line: Our PM composite PMI points to another solid increase in GDP in Q1.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations, EZ, February & Unemployment, Germany, March

In one line: EZ inflation expectations hold steady; further increases in German unemployment are on the way.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France/Spain, Mar & INSEE Consumers' Spending, France, Feb

In one line:  Inflation in France and Spain came in below expectations; another setback in French spending. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, February 2025

In one line: Money and credit data still positive on outlook for EZ economy. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Spain, February 2025

In one line: Back up, but increase in Q1 will be smaller than in Q4. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

March 2025 - EZ Economic Chartbook

THE ECB HAS ONLY ONE MORE CUT IN IT...

  • ...ASSUMING JUST SMALL US TRADE-TARIFF INCREASES

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 March 2025 Eurozone Monitor Money and credit data still a beacon of hope for EZ economy

  • The US confirmed its wish to raise tariffs on imports of EU cars next week; car parts will also be included. 
  • These hikes, touted in February, are “baked in the cake” for our Q2 GDP baseline; the hit will be small. 
  • Money and credit data are improving and continue to point to faster EZ GDP growth.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: IFO BCI, Germany, March 2025

In one line: Election result and fiscal stimulus boost sentiment.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 March 2025 Eurozone Monitor We are betting on further strength in the EUR out to end-2026

  • The EUR has risen against the USD ever since the EU and German fiscal announcements in March. 
  • Fundamentals, such as interest rate differentials, point to further strength ahead. 
  • We look for EURUSD to reach 1.10 at end-2025, and 1.15 at end-2026.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 March 2025 Eurozone Monitor We still think Germany escaped recession in Q1, just

  • Germany’s IFO business climate index rose in March, mirroring the jump in the PMI…
  • ...The surveys still point to recession risk in Q1, after the GDP fall in Q4; we doubt that will be the case… 
  • ...The surveys have underestimated GDP growth in recent quarters, and are likely doing so again in Q1.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, March 2025

In one line: Up less than expected but still consistent with a rebound in GDP.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, March 2025

In one line: Up less than expected but still consistent with a rebound in GDP.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence