In one line: Up in manufacturing, down in services; GDP to flat-line in Q4 after the Olympics boost in Q3.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line:Surging debt interest costs raise borrowing, leaving the Chancellor with little headroom.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Korean export growth picks up a notch, as chip shipments roar
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Korean export growth picks up a notch, as chip shipments roar
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Construction was back recession in Q3; it will remain there in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Gradually slowing underlying inflation means only gradual cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices fall marginally in September but the trend remains up.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
China’s benchmark lending rates are steady this month, as regulators gauge the effect of September’s cuts
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's LPRs on hold as regulators judge impact of earlier easing
Japan's export growth picks up modestly
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Hurricanes weigh on single-family starts, but the underlying trend is flat.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Bank Indonesia paused rate cuts for a second straight month, keeping the BI rate at 6.00%.
- Governor Warjiyo cited concerns over the rupiah, in view of less-aggressive Fed cuts under Trump 2.0.
- We still see the BI rate falling to a terminal level of 4.75% by end-2025, with risks to the downside.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Eurozone negotiated wage growth jumped in Q3, boosted by one-off payments in Germany.
- The Q3 leap in wage growth won’t faze the ECB, but it helps our call for a “small” 25bp cut in December.
- The EZ construction industry remains under the weather, despite some improvement in the surveys.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Ofgem’s 9.5% utility price cap hike raised CPI inflation above the MPC’s 2% target in October.
- CPI inflation should rise to 2.6% in November and 3.0% next April, on duty hikes and energy prices…
- ...ruling out a December rate cut; but a February rate cut is likely as underlying services inflation slows.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Hanging on, but we still think the headline will come down soon.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- US - October core PCE likely up 0.30%, but details will reassure the FOMC
- EUROZONE - What are the SNB’s options as it edges closer to a policy rate of 0%?
- UK - Mr. Trump’s tariffs will have a limited direct impact on UK GDP
- CHINA+ - China’s household spending boosted by policy; GDP growth target in reach
- EM ASIA - Don’t get carried away by Thailand’s scorching hot Q3 GDP
- LATAM - The LatAm service is on holiday this week, returning next week.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
