Pantheon Publications

Global Datanote: Employment, US, March 2025

Healthcare driving payroll growth again; ongoing support will offset some tariff damage.

Samuel TombsGlobal

PM Datanote: US Employment, March

Healthcare driving payroll growth again; ongoing support will offset some tariff damage.

Samuel TombsUS

UK Datanote: Bank of England Decision Maker Panel, March 2025

• In one line: Jobs market passes the worst as prices and wages prove persistent.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Final Services and Composite PMI, March 2025

• In one line: Strengthening domestic spending can cushion the tariff blow.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, March 2025

• In one line: The Construction sector will continue to recover as planning reforms and Government spending boost sentiment.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Car Registrations, March 2025

• In one line: 

  Car registrations will continue to rise despite ‘Liberation Day’ autos tariffs.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

EZ Datanote: Construction PMIs, Eurozone, March 2025

In one line:  Up despite being held back by German weakness. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, February 2025

In one line: Solid but unlikely to last.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, February 2025

In one line: Not enough to salvage Q1, but the 3m/3m trend is turning up.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Factory Orders, Germany, February 2025

In one line: Growth and the surveys were picking up, before Mr. Trump’s tariff hammer.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 4 April 2025

A brief spell of policy-induced deflation is around the corner in Thailand
Very soft, but March should be the low for Philippine inflation this year

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

March 2025 - U.K. Housing Watch

THE RUSH TO BEAT STAMP-DUTY CHANGES PEAKS...

• ...BUT HOUSE PRICES SHOULD STILL RISE BY 4% IN 2025

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, March

Weak, but far from definitive.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

Global Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, March 2025

In one line: Holding at a 46-month low, but will rise again soon; Swiss retaliation to US tariff hikes poses an upside risk.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, March 2025

In one line: Holding at a 46-month low, but will rise again soon; Swiss retaliation to US tariff hikes poses an upside risk.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 3 April 2025: China's response to US tariff hike

China likely to step up fiscal and monetary policy support, allow weaker RMB, in response to hefty US tariff hike; 
Caixin services activity rises

Duncan WrigleyChina+

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, March

ADP distracts more than it informs.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

4 April 2025 US Monitor Stagnation in GDP is now our base case, after the tariff shock

• The average effective tariff rate will jump to 22%, from 3%, if Mr. Trump follows through on his plans.
• We now look for a tariff uplift to the core PCE deflator of about 1¼%, half a point more than our prior assumption.
• The outlook for capex and exports is worse too, but fiscal and monetary policy can offset some damage.

Samuel TombsUS

4 April 2025 LatAm Monitor LatAm emerges as a modest trade hedge amid US tariff shock

• USMCA compliance shields Mexico, for now, as tariff risks shift to non-aligning sectors.
• The US tariff war creates winners in LatAm, as Asia bears the brunt, but collateral damage is a threat.
• Faltering sentiment and tight financial conditions are weighing on Brazil’s industrial sector.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

4 April 2025 China+ Monitor China has options, albeit limited, to counter the steep US tariff hike

• China will seek to prop up domestic demand in response to the US tariff hikes…
• …But this won’t mitigate the hit to growth fully, so we cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.4pp, to 4.0%.
• Serious trade talks are likely to get underway soon, but the US is unlikely to roll back the tariff hikes fully.

Duncan WrigleyChina+